180
FXUS64 KEWX 180022 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
622 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND PACIFIC FRONT ALLOWS A WARMING AND MOISTENING
TREND TO CONTINUE TODAY. THE INCREASED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND
FORCING BY THE LOW LEVEL JET LEADS TO STREAMER SHOWERS THAT SPREAD
FROM THE US 77 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING TO ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR
INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND VAL VERDE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DUE TO MODEST CAPE
AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS PLAINS STATES BY
MONDAY. THIS DRAGS THE PACIFIC FRONT ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU, RIO
GRANDE PLAINS, AND MUCH OF THE HILL COUNTRY OVERNIGHT, THEN ACROSS
THE I-35 CORRIDOR TO THE COASTAL PLAINS AND US 77 CORRIDOR MONDAY
MORNING TO MIDDAY. FORCING BY THE FRONT WILL GENERATE A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AHEAD OF THE
LINE. ALTHOUGH MODEST MLCAPE (400-800 J/KG) AND MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES (6-7 C/KM) REMAIN, LOW LEVEL (SFC-6 KM) SHEAR INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY TO 50-65 KTS LEADING TO A POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREAT.
WHILE THERE IS A THREAT ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU, HILL COUNTRY,
AND CENTRAL TEXAS, THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE NORTH
OF OUR AREA. IT MUST BE NOTED THAT SIMULATED REFLECTIVITIES AMONG
THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE MUCH LESS BULLISH ON SEVERE STORMS.
IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, A MUCH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIRMASS SURGES INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY. A COMBINATION OF LOW
HUMIDITIES AND BREEZY/GUSTY WINDS MAY BRING ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
SUNNY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND HILL COUNTRY TO MID AND UPPER 80S ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35
AND COASTAL PLAINS. CLEAR SKIES AND A NEW SURGE OF COOLER AIR MASS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT BRINGS LOWS INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY OVERNIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE COASTAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DRY AND COOL AIR SPREADING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. WITH CLEAR
SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER HUMIDITY, THE STAGE IS SET UP WELL FOR A
GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WHERE LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SPOTS REACHING THE
FREEZING MARK OF 32 DEGREES. THE COOL AIR STAYS OVER THE LOCAL AREA
ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR THE MOST PART. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE GOING TO BE CHILLY RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S AREAWIDE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN ON FRIDAY AND HELP TO BRING DAILY MAX
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AND EVEN LOWER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. INCREASED MOISTURE AND SOME CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT LIKELY HELP OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS
MORNINGS (UPPER 40S TO MID 50S). CONTINUED DRY AND BACK TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S AND LOWER TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
A BUSY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
RADAR SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR AUS, WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS WEST
OF DRT. STOUT SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS INTACT THIS EVENING AS CIGS
GRADUALLY DECREASE TO MVFR AROUND 03Z ALONG I-35. FOR NOW, WE WILL
KEEP CIGS JUST ABOVE MVFR AT DRT, BUT HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF WIND
SHEAR THIS EVENING. A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE HI-RES MODELS DO SHOW SOME
IFR MOVING IN TO AUS AND WE HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION LATE THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. WE WILL KEEP A PROB30 GROUP FOR TSRA AT
ALL SITES AND HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE TIMING FOR TSRA.
RAIN CHANCES END FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE PACIFIC FRONT, WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN STORE FOR DRT WHERE SKIES WILL CLEAR BY
SUNRISE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 64 80 53 81 / 60 80 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 66 80 50 82 / 50 80 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 67 82 52 84 / 50 80 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 61 75 50 77 / 80 90 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 61 80 52 82 / 60 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 63 77 52 80 / 50 90 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 64 77 49 82 / 80 70 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 65 80 48 82 / 50 80 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 69 82 49 82 / 30 80 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 66 78 53 82 / 70 80 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 67 80 53 83 / 60 80 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...PLATT
LONG-TERM...BRADY
AVIATION...PLATT
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