887
FXUS64 KEWX 181126
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
526 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY IN BANDS, WILL ACCOMPANY A PACIFIC
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT PASSAGE
ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU, HILL COUNTRY, AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING, THE I-35 CORRIDOR MID MORNING, THEN EXITING EAST
OF THE US 77 CORRIDOR AND COASTAL PLAINS MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH MODEST MLCAPE AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN, LOW LEVEL
AND BULK SHEARS COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS
THE MAIN THREAT. THE THREAT AREA IS ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU, HILL
COUNTRY, AND CENTRAL TEXAS. SIMULATED REFLECTIVITIES AMONG THE
VARIOUS MODELS CONTINUE TO BE MUCH LESS BULLISH ON STRONG STORMS.
IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS SURGES INTO OUR
AREA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY. A COMBINATION
OF LOW HUMIDITIES AND BREEZY/GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL ISSUE A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FROM BEXAR
TO KARNES COUNTIES WEST TO THE RIO GRANDE FOR THIS AFTERNOON SINCE
THOSE AREAS WILL NOT HAVE MUCH WETTING RAINS AND WILL SEE THE LOWEST
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES AT BELOW 25 PERCENT. ANOTHER STATEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED FOR TUESDAY. A SOMEWHAT DOWNSLOPING LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL
MINIMIZE ANY COLD ADVECTION KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE
TODAY AND TUESDAY. LIGHTER WINDS, LOW DEWPOINTS, AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL RESULT IN EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO AVERAGE TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
AS THE BASE OF THE AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES,
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH ACROSS TX WITH MUCH MORE
EFFICIENT COLD AIR ADVECTION. THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH OF A SIGNATURE ON
RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, BUT MODEST NW WINDS AT DUSK WILL
GRADUALLY PICK UP TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH AFTER
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. A MORE DUE NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION WILL ENSURE
THE MORE EFFICIENT COOLING, AND THE PREDAWN PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL
ENSURE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 70S DESPITE PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA FOR LIGHT WINDS AND EFFICIENTLY SETTLED COLD AIR, GIVING US THE
COLDEST AUTUMN TEMPERATURES THUS FAR. THE ECM BASED MOS HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A LIGHT FREEZE OVER LOW LYING AREAS OF THE HILL
COUNTRY/CENTRAL TX, BUT THE GFS BASED MOS IS EQUALLY CONSISTENT IN
HOLDING LOWEST TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S. SINCE THE RAW UPPER LEVEL
PATTERNS WITH EACH ARE ALMOST IDENTICAL, WE'LL HANG ON TO A SPLIT OF
THESE TWO CAMPS AND CALL FOR ALL AREAS TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING, BUT
WITH THE COLDEST VALUES GETTING VERY CLOSE. LOCALLY SITED OBSERVATION
POINTS IN THE AREA CREEK BASINS COULD IN FACT REACH FREEZING, SO THE
FIRST FREEZE WARNING OF THE SEASON COULD STILL BE WITHIN REACH.
CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PULL BACK TEMPERATURES FROM THIS
COLDEST MORNING, BUT A LIGHT WIND PATTERN OVER MOST AREAS THURSDAY
NIGHT COULD LEAD TO A FEW AREAS STILL FALLING INTO THE 30S FRIDAY
MORNING. A MORE FLAT ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER TX BY THE
WEEKEND, PROMOTING A STEADY WARMING TREND. BY SUNDAY, WE COULD SEE
LOW TO MID 80S AGAIN FOR MOST AREAS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
MVFR CIGS WITH INTERMITTENT SHRA AND BRIEF LOWER VSBYS WILL PRECEDE
A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THE I-35 SITES, HAVE MAINTAINED SHRA THROUGH
15Z-16Z WITH TEMPOS TSRA 13Z-16Z. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, CLOUDS
RAPIDLY CLEAR TO VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KTS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, THEN DECREASE TO LESS THAN 5 KTS
THIS EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 80 52 81 49 / 80 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 80 51 82 49 / 80 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 82 51 85 48 / 80 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 75 49 78 45 / 90 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 79 52 83 49 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 77 51 79 47 / 80 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 77 48 82 49 / 70 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 80 49 83 49 / 80 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 81 49 82 50 / 90 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 79 53 83 50 / 80 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 80 52 84 51 / 80 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...04
LONG-TERM...18
AVIATION...04
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