142
FXUS64 KEWX 181757 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1157 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY IN BANDS, WILL ACCOMPANY A PACIFIC
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT PASSAGE
ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU, HILL COUNTRY, AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING, THE I-35 CORRIDOR MID MORNING, THEN EXITING EAST
OF THE US 77 CORRIDOR AND COASTAL PLAINS MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH MODEST MLCAPE AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN, LOW LEVEL
AND BULK SHEARS COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS
THE MAIN THREAT. THE THREAT AREA IS ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU, HILL
COUNTRY, AND CENTRAL TEXAS. SIMULATED REFLECTIVITIES AMONG THE
VARIOUS MODELS CONTINUE TO BE MUCH LESS BULLISH ON STRONG STORMS.
IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS SURGES INTO OUR
AREA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY. A COMBINATION
OF LOW HUMIDITIES AND BREEZY/GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL ISSUE A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FROM BEXAR
TO KARNES COUNTIES WEST TO THE RIO GRANDE FOR THIS AFTERNOON SINCE
THOSE AREAS WILL NOT HAVE MUCH WETTING RAINS AND WILL SEE THE LOWEST
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES AT BELOW 25 PERCENT. ANOTHER STATEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED FOR TUESDAY. A SOMEWHAT DOWNSLOPING LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL
MINIMIZE ANY COLD ADVECTION KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE
TODAY AND TUESDAY. LIGHTER WINDS, LOW DEWPOINTS, AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL RESULT IN EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO AVERAGE TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
AS THE BASE OF THE AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES,
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH ACROSS TX WITH MUCH MORE
EFFICIENT COLD AIR ADVECTION. THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH OF A SIGNATURE ON
RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, BUT MODEST NW WINDS AT DUSK WILL
GRADUALLY PICK UP TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH AFTER
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. A MORE DUE NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION WILL ENSURE
THE MORE EFFICIENT COOLING, AND THE PREDAWN PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL
ENSURE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 70S DESPITE PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA FOR LIGHT WINDS AND EFFICIENTLY SETTLED COLD AIR, GIVING US THE
COLDEST AUTUMN TEMPERATURES THUS FAR. THE ECM BASED MOS HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A LIGHT FREEZE OVER LOW LYING AREAS OF THE HILL
COUNTRY/CENTRAL TX, BUT THE GFS BASED MOS IS EQUALLY CONSISTENT IN
HOLDING LOWEST TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S. SINCE THE RAW UPPER LEVEL
PATTERNS WITH EACH ARE ALMOST IDENTICAL, WE'LL HANG ON TO A SPLIT OF
THESE TWO CAMPS AND CALL FOR ALL AREAS TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING, BUT
WITH THE COLDEST VALUES GETTING VERY CLOSE. LOCALLY SITED OBSERVATION
POINTS IN THE AREA CREEK BASINS COULD IN FACT REACH FREEZING, SO THE
FIRST FREEZE WARNING OF THE SEASON COULD STILL BE WITHIN REACH.
CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PULL BACK TEMPERATURES FROM THIS
COLDEST MORNING, BUT A LIGHT WIND PATTERN OVER MOST AREAS THURSDAY
NIGHT COULD LEAD TO A FEW AREAS STILL FALLING INTO THE 30S FRIDAY
MORNING. A MORE FLAT ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER TX BY THE
WEEKEND, PROMOTING A STEADY WARMING TREND. BY SUNDAY, WE COULD SEE
LOW TO MID 80S AGAIN FOR MOST AREAS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LOCAL AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THIS
CYCLE. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS
AND EXITING THE LOCAL AREA MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT, NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 25 KNOTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS
DIMINISH TO 10 KNOTS OR SO BY 23Z. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THE NORTHWEST WIND COMPONENT REMAINS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 52 81 49 70 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 51 82 49 69 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 51 85 48 71 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 49 78 45 66 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 52 83 49 73 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 51 79 47 68 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 48 82 49 71 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 49 83 49 70 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 49 82 50 70 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 53 83 50 71 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 52 84 51 72 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...17
LONG-TERM...05
AVIATION...17
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