868
FXUS64 KEWX 191120
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
520 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
MIXING ALLOWS FOR A DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW TO
TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE AREA MAKING FOR A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY TODAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. ALTHOUGH
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS AND 20S ARE EXPECTED, WIND SPEEDS
ARE LOWER MAKING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ELEVATED. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS, HOWEVER LATER SHIFTS WILL
MONITOR.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH WILL SEND A SURGE OF
COLDER AND EVEN DRIER AIR ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
COLD ADVECTION LOWERS HIGH TEMPERATURES TO A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW
AVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
CAN BE EXPECTED. NORTHERLY WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE
MORNING, THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AT TIME OF THE
LOWEST HUMIDITIES. FUELS WILL DRY A LITTLE. TAKING THIS INTO
ACCOUNT, FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL
CATEGORY ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT LIKELY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKS ITSELF PRETTY MUCH ON TOP OF
THE EWX CWA. SUPER EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL QUICKLY TAKE
SHAPE AROUND SUNSET WEDNESDAY AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE
30S FOR MOST, WITH SOME SPOTS IN THE HILL COUNTRY GETTING DOWN CLOSE
TO FREEZING, PARTICULARLY IN OUR PRIMARY DRAINAGE SPOTS WHERE COOLER
TEMPERATURES OCCUR MOST FREQUENTLY. COOL, COMFORTABLE AFTERNOONS BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE WE SEE A RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ON SATURDAY. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO DRY
AND MILD CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS
DIVERGE ON WHAT MAY COME TO PASS BY THE BEGINNING TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE GEFS/GFS DEPICTING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
THROUGH OUR AREA TUESDAY, WHILE THE ECMWF AND GEM DO NOT BRING ANY
SORT OF FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. FOR NOW, WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
FOR HOW MODEL TRENDS GO, BUT FOR THE MOST PART, EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO
PREVAIL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
VFR SKC FLYING CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LIGHT WINDS INCREASE TO NORTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS BY MID MORNING.
THEN, WINDS TURN NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 KTS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 83 49 69 42 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 83 49 69 34 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 85 50 71 37 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 79 46 66 38 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 84 50 73 42 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 81 47 67 35 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 83 49 71 35 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 84 49 69 36 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 82 49 69 37 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 83 51 70 40 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 85 53 71 40 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...04
LONG-TERM...MMM
AVIATION...04
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