510
FXUS64 KEWX 191802 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1202 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
MIXING ALLOWS FOR A DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW TO
TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE AREA MAKING FOR A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY TODAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. ALTHOUGH
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS AND 20S ARE EXPECTED, WIND SPEEDS
ARE LOWER MAKING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ELEVATED. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS, HOWEVER LATER SHIFTS WILL
MONITOR.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH WILL SEND A SURGE OF
COLDER AND EVEN DRIER AIR ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
COLD ADVECTION LOWERS HIGH TEMPERATURES TO A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW
AVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
CAN BE EXPECTED. NORTHERLY WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE
MORNING, THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AT TIME OF THE
LOWEST HUMIDITIES. FUELS WILL DRY A LITTLE. TAKING THIS INTO
ACCOUNT, FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL
CATEGORY ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT LIKELY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKS ITSELF PRETTY MUCH ON TOP OF
THE EWX CWA. SUPER EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL QUICKLY TAKE
SHAPE AROUND SUNSET WEDNESDAY AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE
30S FOR MOST, WITH SOME SPOTS IN THE HILL COUNTRY GETTING DOWN CLOSE
TO FREEZING, PARTICULARLY IN OUR PRIMARY DRAINAGE SPOTS WHERE COOLER
TEMPERATURES OCCUR MOST FREQUENTLY. COOL, COMFORTABLE AFTERNOONS BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE WE SEE A RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ON SATURDAY. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO DRY
AND MILD CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS
DIVERGE ON WHAT MAY COME TO PASS BY THE BEGINNING TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE GEFS/GFS DEPICTING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
THROUGH OUR AREA TUESDAY, WHILE THE ECMWF AND GEM DO NOT BRING ANY
SORT OF FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. FOR NOW, WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
FOR HOW MODEL TRENDS GO, BUT FOR THE MOST PART, EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO
PREVAIL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS OF 6 KNOTS OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ALONG AND BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE
BOUNDARY AROUND 09Z THROUGH 13Z THROUGH THE TERMINALS. BREEZY AND
GUSTY CONDITIONS STAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 49 69 42 74 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 49 69 34 73 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 50 71 37 74 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 46 66 38 72 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 50 73 42 75 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 47 67 35 73 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 49 71 35 72 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 49 69 36 73 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 49 69 37 72 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 51 70 40 72 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 53 71 40 73 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...17
LONG-TERM...05
AVIATION...17
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