871
FXUS64 KEWX 200728
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
128 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
AT LONG LAST, OUR POLAR FRONT HAS ARRIVED. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS
TO START THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO
GET OUT OF THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. SUNSHINE AND BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
CERTAINLY ADD A BIT OF A CHILL TO THE AIR COMPARED TO WHAT WE'VE
EXPERIENCED IN RECENT MONTHS, SO GRABBING A JACKET THIS MORNING ON
THE WAY OUT THE DOOR WOULDN'T BE A BAD IDEA.
THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE FALL SEASON SO FAR IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A
SURFACE HIGH WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SETTLE IN RIGHT
ON TOP OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING, DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 20S LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND
WINDS DROPPING TO LESS THAN 3 MPH FOR MOST LOCATIONS AFTER SUNSET
WILL RESULT IN A RAPID DROP IN TEMPERATURES AFTER SOLAR HEATING IS
LOST. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING LOWS IN THE
SOME OF OUR COOLER DRAINAGE SPOTS IN THE LOWER 30S FOR THE LAST 2
DAYS. THE NBM TYPICALLY DOESN'T HANDLE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
EVENTS LIKE THE ONE EXPECTED TONIGHT VERY WELL. OPTED TO ONCE AGAIN
BLEND MORE OF THE CONSMOS GUIDANCE INTO THE FORECAST TO HEDGE CLOSER
TO WHAT HAS BEEN SEEN IN THE PAST IN THESE TYPES OF SETUPS. WHILE A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED, SOME SPOTS COULD GET RATHER CLOSE
TO THE FREEZING MARK, ESPECIALLY IN THE HILL COUNTRY, AND PERHAPS A
FEW LOCATIONS JUST EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR, IN THE COASTAL
PRAIRIES.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY TOMORROW, WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE
LOWER 70S FOR MOST, AND WINDS TURNING BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST BY LATE MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ON THURSDAY
NIGHT DUE TO EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WINDS, LOW
DEWPOINTS, AND CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AS
PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL IN THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY LOWER
LEVEL FLOW RETURNS WITH A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND BEGINNING ON
FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MORE
PLEASANT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
THERE WILL BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OR TWO NEXT WEEK GOING INTO THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH
TIMING DUE TO A LACK OF CONSISTENCY AND CONSENSUS. FOR NOW, WILL
MAKE NO CHANGES EARLY IN THE WEEK AND GO WITH BLENDED GUIDANCES MID
WEEK. REGARDLESS OF ANY FRONTAL PASSAGES, CHANCES OF RAIN LOOK TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS FORECAST, FOR NOW.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS
PERSIST AROUND 5 TO 7 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A SECONDARY
AND REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT THEN ARRIVES OVERNIGHT. AT THE I-35
SITES (KAUS, KSAT, AND KSSF), WINDS WILL RESPOND BY SHIFTING AND
INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTH. GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM EARLY MORNING INTO MID-AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. WINDS THEN
SUBSIDE LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEYOND SUNSET. AT KDRT, WINDS REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS DURING
THE PERIOD WITH DIRECTIONS OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 128 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
DRY TO CRITICALLY DRY FUELS, DESPITE SOME LIGHT RAINFALL ON MONDAY
MORNING WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE HILL COUNTRY, I-35 CORRIDOR, AND
COASTAL PLAINS. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH, GUSTING TO 25 MPH AT
TIMES WILL LEAD TO THESE ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
LOCATIONS LISTED ABOVE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TO OPEN FLAME SOURCES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 68 41 74 44 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 68 35 73 40 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 70 38 74 42 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 65 38 71 41 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 72 42 74 45 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 66 35 72 41 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 70 36 71 41 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 69 37 73 40 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 68 38 72 39 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 69 40 71 45 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 71 40 73 45 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...MMM
LONG-TERM...04
AVIATION...MMM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page