038
FXUS64 KEWX 202056
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
256 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST AND
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE BRINGING COOLER, DRIER AIR TO
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE 10-15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE EAST
DURING THIS PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL MEAN
A CHILLY MORNING THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S AND
40S ACROSS THE CWA. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING LOWS BELOW FREEZING IN
THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU, BUT THEY ARE ON THE LOW SIDE
OF THE SOLUTIONS AND WE DO NOT HAVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING IN
OUR FORECAST. THAT SAID, IT WOULD NOT BE SHOCKING TO SEE A FEW SPOTS
REACH FREEZING IN THE MORNING. THE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE SLOWLY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH PERIOD. THURSDAY LOOKS
LIKE A NICE FALL DAY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
DRY AND WARMING A BIT ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE FORECAST TO STAY COOLER RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S. A WARNING TREND BEGINS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE RIO GRANDE.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY'S HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO BE WAY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
AND EVEN REACHING RECORDS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. A DRY COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
TUESDAY'S HIGHS ARE FORECAST STAY IN THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. A SIMILAR DAY IS
ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S IN ADDITION
TO MORE CLOUDS DEVELOPING WITH THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. BREEZY WINDS QUICKLY DROP
OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BETWEEN 22-00Z AND WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MOST OF TOMORROW FOR MOST SITES.
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE KDRT, WHERE A LIGHT SE WIND DEVELOPS TOMORROW
MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 128 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
DRY TO CRITICALLY DRY FUELS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE HILL COUNTRY, I-35
CORRIDOR, AND COASTAL PLAINS. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20 MPH, GUSTING
TO 25 MPH AT TIMES WILL LEAD TO THESE ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE LOCATIONS LISTED ABOVE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TO OPEN FLAME SOURCES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 42 74 45 75 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 39 73 42 75 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 41 74 44 77 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 39 71 43 73 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 44 74 47 78 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 39 73 42 73 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 40 72 44 76 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 39 73 42 75 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 38 72 42 75 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 44 72 47 76 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 44 73 47 77 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...05
LONG-TERM...17
AVIATION...05
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