032
FXUS64 KEWX 151131
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
531 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE, WITH GREATEST
OCCURRENCE AFTER DARK THROUGH EACH MORNING.
- OCCASIONAL SPOTTY SHOWERS CONTINUE AS WELL. ACTIVITY GENERALLY
REMAINS LIGHT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH
DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE, WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 25 TO 30 F ABOVE AVERAGE AND DAYTIME
HIGHS RUNNING AROUND 10 TO 15 F ABOVE AVERAGE.
THE WEATHER REGIME REMAINS UNCHANGED WITHIN THE SHORT TERM ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
HELPS TO MAINTAIN A CONSTANT FEED OF LOW-LEVEL WARM AND MOIST AIR
ADVECTION PUMPING INTO THE REGION. MODEST WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALSO MAINTAINS ALOFT IN THE ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE
AREA INTO TUESDAY. DAMP SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT
THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS INTO EACH MORNING WITH THE COMBINATION
OF FOG, DRIZZLE, AND PERIODIC LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE CEILINGS
REMAIN LOWEST THROUGH THESE TIMES AS WELL. WITH LIMITED VERTICAL
MIXING INTO AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, CEILINGS SHOULD RISE
WITH SOME BREAKS AS WELL DEVELOPING WITHIN THE CLOUDS. DRIZZLE AND
VISIBILITY SHOULD IMPROVE EACH AFTERNOON AS WELL BUT SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOONS. HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND AN OPPORTUNITY FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN
THE SHORT TERM OCCURS MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
WITH INCREASING LIFT WITH A WEAK FRONT NEARING THE HILL COUNTRY.
THIS FRONT COULD SNEAK INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LLANO AND BURNET
COUNTIES BY 00Z TUESDAY BUT IT IS NOT FORECAST TO ADVANCE MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH THAN THAT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AS
DAYTIME HIGHS CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE 70S WHILE THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
- MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS IN PLAY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
- A POWERFUL COLD FRONT ARRIVES AS EARLY AS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING,
BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR LATE WEEK.
- DRIER AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
AN ACTIVE START TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS EXPECTED AS SHOWERS
CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
THESE SHOWERS, AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH OVERRUNNING EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SETUP OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WILL
RESULT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED RAIN AND STORM THREAT.
TURNING OUR ATTENTION TO THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT, THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN REMAINS RATHER FLUID, WITH YET ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. EARLIER RUNS OF THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF HAVE ADVERTISED A CUTOFF LOW WITH THIS
TROUGH OVER TEXAS, BUT ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO PAINT A DIFFERENT
PICTURE. THIS CUTOFF LOW IS ABSENT FROM THE ENSEMBLES AND NBM POPS
SEEM TO REFLECT THIS TREND. THIS LACK OF CUTOFF LOW MEANS LESS
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. NEVERTHELESS, HAVE HELD ONTO
POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING, BUT THAT MAY BE GENEROUS AT THIS
POINT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THIS FRONT, BUT NOT AS COLD
WITH OUR RECENT FRONT THAT BROUGHT A WIDESPREAD FREEZE TO THE REGION.
EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MAJORITY OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS MORNING, INCLUDING OVER THE I-35 TERMINALS (KAUS, KSAT,
AND KSSF) UNDER IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS. SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE CONTINUES ALONG WITH SOME REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. SOME
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR THEN PERHAPS EVEN UP TO VFR LEVELS
WILL BE EXPECTED INTO AND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN DECLINE AFTER DARK WITH RETURNING MVFR TO
IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE
WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY BREEZES
CONTINUE OTHERWISE.
KDRT HAS MAINTAINED MAINLY VFR LEVELS INTO EARLY THIS MORNING BUT
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DETERIORATE LATER THIS MORNING TO MVFR
LEVELS AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY DOWN TO IFR LEVELS. CONDITIONS THEN
IMPROVE BACK TOWARDS VFR LEVELS FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING. CONDITIONS THEN DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT TOWARDS MVFR
THEN IFR LEVELS. BREEZES WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 78 65 76 59 / 20 20 20 30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 79 66 78 59 / 30 10 20 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 79 66 78 61 / 30 10 20 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 77 64 74 57 / 20 20 30 30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 78 65 74 61 / 10 20 10 40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 78 65 75 59 / 20 20 30 30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 79 65 77 62 / 20 10 10 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 79 65 77 60 / 30 10 20 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 79 66 79 60 / 20 10 20 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 65 77 62 / 20 10 20 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 79 65 78 63 / 20 10 10 30
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...BRADY
LONG-TERM...MMM
AVIATION...BRADY
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