053
FXUS64 KEWX 152330
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
530 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE, MAINLY AFTER
DARK THROUGH EACH MORNING.
- EXPECT OCCASIONAL SPOTTY SHOWERS AS WELL. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE, WITH THE OVERNIGHT
LOWS RUNNING ABOUT 25 TO 30 F ABOVE AVERAGE AND DAYTIME HIGHS 10 TO
15 F ABOVE AVERAGE.
THE WEATHER REGIME REMAINS UNCHANGED WITHIN THE SHORT TERM ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN A CONSTANT FEED OF WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION.
MEANWHILE, MODEST WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON TUESDAY. DAMP SURFACE
CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS INTO
EACH MORNING WITH THE COMBINATION OF FOG, DRIZZLE, AND PERIODIC
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OCCURS MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AS LIFT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 60S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
THE SIGNAL FOR A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE OVER OUR NW CWA BORDER TUESDAY
MORNING IS FADING IN THE MODEL RUN-TO-RUN TRENDS AND NON-EXISTENT IN
THE 12Z GFS. A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MEXICO MOVES OVER THE
AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, BUT MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND
WEAKER AND WITH MOSTLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA AS IT PASSED
OVERHEAD. THIS WEAK PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH JUST SOME LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
A FEW MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW AN AFTERNOON ARRIVAL OF THE STRONGER FRONT
WEDNESDAY, BUT THE TRENDS FOR TODAY SHOW A SLIGHTLY SPED UP FRONT
ARRIVING TO MOST AREAS BY 18Z. THIS MEANS THERE IS ONLY A TINY EARLY
AFTERNOON WINDOW FOR DEEPER CONVECTION AS THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH TIME
FOR MIXING. IF A STORM DEVELOPS, THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT MIGHT BE EAST
OF I-37 AND ALONG/SOUTH OF I-10. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD WANE BY THE END
OF THE DAY, AND A COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS MOVES IN BY THURSDAY
MORNING. MODEL TRENDS WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE CAA PATTERN AND WIND
SPEEDS HAVE COOLED WITH TIME, SO WE PROBABLY WILL NOT SEE A FREEZE IN
OUR FORECAST AREA AS WAS SUGGESTED EARLIER. A REINFORCING FRONT IS
DEPICTED FOR LATE FRIDAY, BUT IT LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH FOR TEMPERATURES
TO HOLD TO PERSISTENCE INTO SATURDAY. NEXT SUNDAY LOOKS UNCERTAIN
AMONG DETERMINISTIC MODELS, SO ANOTHER PERSISTENCE TEMPERATURE TREND
IS OFFERED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
VFR WITH A FEW SPOTS OF MVFR START THE FORECAST, THEN CIGS FALL TO
IFR/LIFR AND VSBYS TO IFR/MVFR LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MORNING AS AREAS OF -RADZ DEVELOP. CIGS/VSBYS SLOWLY RISE
TO VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS -RADZ ENDS. S TO SE WINDS 5 TO 12 KTS
PREVAIL WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS ON MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 65 78 60 77 / 10 30 20 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 65 78 60 77 / 10 20 20 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 66 79 62 78 / 10 10 20 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 65 76 59 75 / 20 40 20 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 65 75 63 77 / 0 20 40 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 65 76 60 77 / 20 40 20 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 64 76 62 77 / 10 10 20 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 64 77 60 77 / 0 10 20 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 64 79 61 77 / 0 10 10 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 66 76 62 76 / 10 20 20 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 67 78 62 78 / 0 10 10 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...ZEITLER
LONG-TERM...18
AVIATION...04
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