189
FXUS64 KEWX 160751
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
151 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
-WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
-REMAINS VERY MUGGY WITH OCCASIONAL DAMPNESS FROM FOG, DRIZZLE,
AND/OR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY.
-LOW END THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY IN THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A VERY WARM
AND HUMID AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE SURFACE DAMPNESS AT TIMES AS PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG, DRIZZLE, AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ESTABLISHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. INTO AND THROUGH TODAY, THE NORTHERLY
HALF OF THE REGION WILL BE MOST FAVORED FOR THIS DAMPNESS WHILE THE
SOUTHERN HALF BECOMES MORE FAVORED LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT COULD REACH INTO OUR NORTHERN HILL
COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU COUNTIES SOMETIME TONIGHT. IT
WOULD BRING A TEMPORARY NORTHEAST SHIFT IN WINDS BUT THE FRONT WON'T
MAKE MUCH MORE PROGRESS BEYOND THESE LOCATIONS AND WILL LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD INTO AND THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. A FEW OF THE SHORT TERM MODEL RUNS SUGGEST
THAT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING COULD SEE JUST ENOUGH
FORCING, PERHAPS FROM THE HELP FROM THE NEARBY SURFACE FRONT, FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. THIS IS ALSO WHERE LOCAL INSTABILITY BUILDS UP THE
MOST ACROSS THE REGION AS THE DAYTIME HIGHS FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY
LIKELY REACH INTO THE 80S AS CLOUDS BREAK/SCATTER OUT. ELSEWHERE,
THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE VERY LIMITED AND BELOW MENTIONABLE
PROBABILITIES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
- STRONG COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE IN EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE
INDICATED ON WEDNESDAY.
- GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
- COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEK.
THE LATEST ROUND OF GLOBAL GUIDANCE IN ADDITION TO THE NAM12
INDICATE THAT THIS NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY, WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
WILL GO WITH THAT TREND AND HAVE OPTED TO BOTH INCREASE WIND SPEEDS
CLOSER TO THE NBM 75TH PERCENTILE BEHIND THE FRONT, AND TO DROP
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE NAM12/NBM 25TH PERCENTILE/CONSENSUS MOS
GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR LATER
THIS WEEK AND STRETCHING INTO THE WEEKEND. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW AND
PERHAPS SLIGHTLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET
IN THE PRECIPITATION DEPARTMENT BEYOND WEDNESDAY. WE'LL TURN OUR
ATTENTION TO THE NEXT FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE SOMETIME EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THANKFULLY, WE CAN LOOK FORWARD TO COOLER, LESS MUGGY DAYS
AHEAD IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY WILL SPREAD TO ALL AREAS
OVERNIGHT WHILE LOWERING TO IFR, AND POSSIBLY LIFR WITH SOME
REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AS -RADZ DEVELOPS. CIGS/VSBYS SLOWLY RISE TO VFR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS -RADZ ENDS. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHRA MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING, HOWEVER HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT AS THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY ON IMPACTS TO THE SITES. CIGS LOWER BACK TO MVFR MONDAY
NIGHT. S TO SE WINDS 5 TO 12 KTS PREVAIL WITH THE HIGHER SPEEDS
DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING, HOWEVER WILL STALL NORTH OF THE SITES, THEN
LIFT BACK NORTH EARLY TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 77 62 78 62 / 20 20 10 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 78 62 78 62 / 20 20 10 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 78 62 78 63 / 10 10 10 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 75 60 76 60 / 30 20 10 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 74 63 77 62 / 20 30 20 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 76 61 77 61 / 30 20 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 77 62 79 63 / 10 20 10 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 78 61 77 62 / 20 10 10 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 79 63 79 62 / 10 10 20 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 76 62 77 64 / 10 10 10 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 78 63 79 65 / 10 10 10 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...BRADY
LONG-TERM...MMM
AVIATION...BRADY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page