489
FXUS64 KEWX 161116
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
516 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
-WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
-REMAINS VERY MUGGY WITH OCCASIONAL DAMPNESS FROM FOG, DRIZZLE,
AND/OR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY.
-LOW END THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY IN THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A VERY WARM
AND HUMID AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE SURFACE DAMPNESS AT TIMES AS PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG, DRIZZLE, AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ESTABLISHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. INTO AND THROUGH TODAY, THE NORTHERLY
HALF OF THE REGION WILL BE MOST FAVORED FOR THIS DAMPNESS WHILE THE
SOUTHERN HALF BECOMES MORE FAVORED LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT COULD REACH INTO OUR NORTHERN HILL
COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU COUNTIES SOMETIME TONIGHT. IT
WOULD BRING A TEMPORARY NORTHEAST SHIFT IN WINDS BUT THE FRONT WON'T
MAKE MUCH MORE PROGRESS BEYOND THESE LOCATIONS AND WILL LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD INTO AND THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. A FEW OF THE SHORT TERM MODEL RUNS SUGGEST
THAT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING COULD SEE JUST ENOUGH
FORCING, PERHAPS FROM THE HELP FROM THE NEARBY SURFACE FRONT, FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. THIS IS ALSO WHERE LOCAL INSTABILITY BUILDS UP THE
MOST ACROSS THE REGION AS THE DAYTIME HIGHS FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY
LIKELY REACH INTO THE 80S AS CLOUDS BREAK/SCATTER OUT. ELSEWHERE,
THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE VERY LIMITED AND BELOW MENTIONABLE
PROBABILITIES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
- STRONG COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE IN EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE
INDICATED ON WEDNESDAY.
- GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
- COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEK.
THE LATEST ROUND OF GLOBAL GUIDANCE IN ADDITION TO THE NAM12
INDICATE THAT THIS NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY, WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
WILL GO WITH THAT TREND AND HAVE OPTED TO BOTH INCREASE WIND SPEEDS
CLOSER TO THE NBM 75TH PERCENTILE BEHIND THE FRONT, AND TO DROP
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE NAM12/NBM 25TH PERCENTILE/CONSENSUS MOS
GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR LATER
THIS WEEK AND STRETCHING INTO THE WEEKEND. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW AND
PERHAPS SLIGHTLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET
IN THE PRECIPITATION DEPARTMENT BEYOND WEDNESDAY. WE'LL TURN OUR
ATTENTION TO THE NEXT FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE SOMETIME EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THANKFULLY, WE CAN LOOK FORWARD TO COOLER, LESS MUGGY DAYS
AHEAD IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 509 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
MVFR CEILINGS PRIMARILY PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, SOME POCKETS OF IFR ARE POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD
INCLUDE KSAT AND KDRT. THERE IS ALSO SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE ONCE AGAIN IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THE CEILINGS
RISE INTO AND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK
AND SCATTER OUT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. MOST OF TONIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT LOOKS TO STAY
VFR BUT DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH DECREASING VISIBILITY
AND LOW CEILINGS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION NEAR AND AFTER SUNRISE
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OF AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS
WITH SOUTH WINDS TURNING SLIGHTLY MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 77 62 78 63 / 30 20 10 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 79 62 79 63 / 20 20 10 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 78 63 78 62 / 20 10 10 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 75 60 76 59 / 30 20 10 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 75 62 77 61 / 20 30 20 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 77 61 77 61 / 30 20 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 77 63 79 64 / 10 20 10 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 78 62 77 62 / 20 10 10 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 79 63 79 63 / 10 10 20 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 76 63 77 64 / 20 10 10 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 78 63 79 64 / 10 10 10 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...BRADY
LONG-TERM...MMM
AVIATION...BRADY
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