306
FXUS64 KEWX 170439
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1039 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
- WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY, SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, AND RIO
GRANDE. THERE IS ALSO A 20% OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA.
- DENSE FOG IS FORECAST FOR SOME AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
UNSEASONABLY WARM, DAMP, AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE SHORT-TERM. A WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU LATER
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WON'T MAKE MUCH FARTHER PROGRESS SOUTH,
STALLING THEN LIFTING BACK NORTH ON TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE INDICATED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT. FARTHER
SOUTHWEST BETWEEN DEL RIO AND HONDO, HREF GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
MODEST LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL
LIFT, AND A FEW HREF MEMBER ARE GENERATING ISOLATED DEEPER
CONVECTION AND A LOW CHANCE (20%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS REGION.
THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS DEW POINTS REMAIN HIGH AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH. SOME OF THE FOG COULD BECOME
DENSE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS DURING
THE MORNING PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A 20 TO
30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. CAN'T RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS
THE BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THE RAIN
CHANCES COME TO AN END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
PUSHES INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. ONE THING TO ADD TO
THE WEATHER SCENARIO FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IS PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG. CAN'T RULE OUT
A FEW SPOTS WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG. THE GOOD THING IS THAT THE FOGGY
CONDITIONS WILL BE ERASED AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
THE COOLER AND DRY AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT SPREADS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY AND ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND MID 70S ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS. CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND WINDS DROP TO 6
MPH OR LESS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO LOWER 50S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
DRY AND COOL WEATHER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S RANGE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
ALL OF THE TERMINALS HAVE VFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
RETURN TO ALL OF THE AIRPORTS CLOSE TO SUNRISE. THE SAN ANTONIO AND
DEL RIO AIRPORTS WILL DROP TO IFR/LIFR BEFORE REBOUNDING TO VFR BY
EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON, BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE AT DRT BETWEEN
NOW AND 12Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 65 78 63 66 / 20 10 0 30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 64 80 62 67 / 10 10 0 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 65 79 63 68 / 10 10 0 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 61 76 59 61 / 30 10 10 30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 62 76 59 66 / 30 20 0 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 63 77 62 64 / 20 10 10 30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 64 78 62 69 / 40 20 0 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 65 79 62 67 / 10 10 0 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 64 79 63 69 / 10 10 0 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 65 79 63 67 / 20 20 0 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 65 79 63 70 / 20 10 0 30
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...76
LONG-TERM...17
AVIATION...05
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