527
FXUS64 KEWX 171122
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
522 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 514 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY INTO THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE KEEPS SHOWERS THROUGH THE
MORNING BUT DID BACK OFF A BIT ON THE NUMBER OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ADJUSTED THE POPS SOME
BUT ELECTED TO STILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO ACROSS THIS REGION. MONITORING ALSO A REGION OF DENSER FOG
ADVANCING WESTWARD INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE HOUSTON AND
CORPUS CHRISTI CWAS, WHERE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. WILL
ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HERE SHORTLY BUT A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY COULD BE NECESSARY FOR A TIME IN THE COASTAL PLAINS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
-LATE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING SHOWER AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY ISOLATED STORMS.
-PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. COULD
BECOME DENSE ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS.
-COLD FRONT ARRIVING WEDNESDAY MORNING. BRINGS SHOWER CHANCES ALONG
WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES IN IT'S WAKE.
THE COMBINATION OF A SURFACE FRONT ALONG THE BORDER OF OUR CWA AND
SAN ANGELO'S CWA, A DRYLINE OR SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST ACROSS THE
MEXICO TERRAIN, AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT ADVANCING INTO THE AREA
TOWARDS SUNRISE WILL COMBINE AS ENOUGH FORCING FOR AN UPTICK IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY, IN ADDITION TO SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, FROM
THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS INTO AND THROUGH
THIS MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD DEVELOP WITHIN ANY OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL WHERE ISOLATED POCKETS OF AN INCH OR MORE OF
RAIN COULD OCCUR. THIS MORNING, TOWARDS AND AFTER SUNRISE, WE'LL
ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG. STRONGEST SIGNAL
FOR THE FOG IS ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WITHIN THE COASTAL PLAINS
WHERE FOG COULD BECOME AT LEAST LOCALLY DENSE. THE FOG SHOULD ERODE
BY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE CLOUDS GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MORNING RAIN CHANCES HIGHLIGHTED ABOVE TO THE
WEST SHOULD ALSO TAPER OFF INTO AND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL OTHERWISE AGAIN TREND WELL ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE MID 70S INTO
THE LOW 80S.
ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WILL BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. EXPECT FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FOG COULD BECOME DENSE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS SOME
LOCATIONS. THE FRONT THEN QUICKLY ADVANCES THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BRING A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH
IT BUT ACTIVITY SHOULDN'T LAST TOO LONG. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP IN WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTS INTO THE 35 MPH RANGE. THE
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL FUNNEL IN MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. SEVERAL LOCATIONS MAY SEE THE DAYTIME HIGHS
OCCUR IN THE MORNING BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO AND THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL PROBABLY GET INTO THE 70S ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR WHILE THE HIGHS WILL BE COOLER FARTHER
NORTH.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
-QUIET COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE DAYS
-MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF WITH THE DEPARTURE OF OUR
LAST WEATHER MAKER FOR QUITE SOME TIME. A NOTICEABLE PATTERN SHIFT
DEVELOPS ONCE THIS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH OUR
REGION BEING STUCK BETWEEN THE POLAR JET WAY TO OUR NORTH AND THE
SUBTROPICAL JET TO OUR SOUTH. THUS WE FIND OURSELVES IN A MOSTLY
WEAK ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ESTABLISHING
ITSELF JUST OFF TO OUR WEST. WITH THIS PATTERN COMES QUIET WEATHER,
CERTAINLY QUIETER AND ALSO DRIER THEN WE HAVE BEEN FOR THE PAST
WEEK. THE ONLY REAL SHOT AT ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE LONG TERM IS
AROUND NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY BUT EVEN THEN AT THIS POINT ITS QUITE
FAR OUT AND MODELS CAN AND LIKELY WILL CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO
NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S. TO GIVE PERSPECTIVE THIS IS ABOUT A
20 TO 30 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP FROM WHAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING
RECENTLY. OUR LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN HIGHER THEN OUR AVERAGE
HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR! QUITE THE CHANGE IS EXPECTED AND A
WELCOME RELIEF FOR MANY AS WE FINALLY COOL DOWN (NOT AS COLD AS LAST
WEEKS FRONT) AND DRY OUT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE TAF SITES. THE
FLIGHT CATEGORIES GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO AND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
TOWARDS VFR LEVELS. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT
BEFORE FLIGHT CONDITIONS AGAIN WILL DETERIORATE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN ARRIVING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL IMPROVE CEILINGS AND FOG BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IN WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT, BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ESTABLISH WITH GUSTS
INTO THE 25 KNOT RANGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 79 61 66 40 / 10 0 40 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 80 62 68 37 / 10 0 40 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 80 62 68 40 / 10 0 30 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 76 56 62 36 / 10 10 30 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 77 60 68 44 / 20 0 20 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 79 60 65 36 / 10 10 40 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 79 61 69 39 / 30 0 30 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 79 61 68 39 / 10 0 40 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 81 63 70 40 / 10 0 40 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 79 63 69 42 / 20 0 30 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 80 64 71 43 / 10 0 30 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...BRADY
LONG-TERM...CJM
AVIATION...BRADY
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