628
FXUS64 KEWX 180815
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
215 AM CST WED DEC 18 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM CST WED DEC 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
-AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
-COLD FRONT ARRIVES TO I-35 CORRIDOR BY MID-MORNING, COMPLETELY
THROUGH OUR AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
-SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS, ISOLATED T'STORM AND GUSTY NORTH POST-
FRONTAL WINDS ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT.
THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS FROM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS STILL
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATER THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WILL PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THIS
MORNING. FOG LIKELY WILL BECOME DENSE, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND TO THE
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH THE VISIBILITY BECOMING A QUARTER
MILE OR LESS. WE'LL EXPAND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY ONE MORE ROW OF
COUNTIES INLAND, INCLUDING LEE, BASTROP, GUADALUPE, WILSON, AND
ATASCOSA COUNTIES. THE FOG WILL QUICKLY DISPERSE WITH ARRIVAL OF
THE FRONT FROM MID TO LATE MORNING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE HILL COUNTRY NEAR OR A LITTLE AFTER
SUNRISE. IT THEN REACHES THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY MID-MORNING AND THEN
EXITS OUR REGION INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A QUICK MOVING BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINS LIGHT BUT THERE COULD BE AN
ISOLATED STORM THAT COULD FAVOR OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MOST
COUNTIES. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL END RAPIDLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
BEHIND THIS FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS BREEZY POST-FRONTAL
NORTHERLY WINDS USHER IN THE DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION. GUSTS INTO THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE ARE EXPECTED. THERE ARE
LIKELY SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL RECORD DAYTIME HIGHS DURING THIS
MORNING WHILE OTHER AREAS COULD BRIEFLY REBOUND BY A FEW DEGREES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. OVERALL, MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.
COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW.
WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING BUT DO NOT LOOK TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE. PROTECTED
VALLEY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE HILL COUNTRY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
COULD BE WHERE THE TEMPERATURES FALL ENOUGH FOR A POSSIBLE BRIEF
LIGHT FREEZE. ELSEWHERE, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RUN FROM THE MID 30S
INTO THE LOW 40S. THURSDAY TRENDS SEASONABLY COOL DAY UNDER FULL
SUNSHINE AND WITH LIGHTER WINDS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM CST WED DEC 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
-QUIET, SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE AREA
-BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
-SNEAK PEAK AT CHRISTMAS FORECAST
FOR THE LONG TERM NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED WEATHER WISE AS WE CONTINUE
TO BE SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE POLAR JET TO OUR NORTH AND THE
SUBTROPICAL JET TO OUR SOUTH. THAT SAID THE ONLY REAL "WEATHER
MAKER" COMES FRIDAY AS THE GLOBAL MODELS HINT AT A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT SLIDING THROUGH OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
AMOUNT TO AT BEST A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION CAUSING WINDS TO SWITCH
FROM WESTERLY TO NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY. THIS SHIFT WILL LIKELY CAUSE
OUR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING TO BE QUITE CHILLY
FOR AREAS IN THE HILL COUNTRY DOWN INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS. WE ARE
DONE ISSUING FREEZE WARNINGS FOR OUR CWA BUT IT MAY BE A GOOD IDEA TO
BRING IN ANY PLANTS OR SENSITIVE VEGETATION NONETHELESS.
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO WARM MUCH ABOVE 60 FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THOSE IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WHERE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70 ARE EXPECTED. WE HAVE ONE MORE "COOLER DAY" ON SUNDAY
BEFORE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR MONDAY AND
BEYOND. AS IT STANDS, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO ON A WARMING TREND ALL
THE WAY INTO CHRISTMAS.
SPEAKING OF CHRISTMAS I'M SURE MANY OF Y'ALL ARE WONDERING WHAT'S
THE FORECAST LOOKING LIKE? WELL, SO FAR SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
ARE HINTING AT SOME TYPE OF WEATHER MAKER COMING FROM NEW MEXICO,
THE VORTICITY IN BOTH 700MB AND 850MB IS INDEED IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER,
MODELS AS IS TYPICAL THIS FAR OUT ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE. THE
EUROPEAN MODEL SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER AND VIGOROUS SOLUTION WHILE THE
GFS IS SHOWING A FASTER BUT WEAKER SOLUTION. LOOKING AT THE GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES THEY ALL SEEM TO SHOW SOME TYPE OF SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN TEXAS, THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW FAR SOUTH CAN THIS FEATURE
DIG? WILL IT STAY NORTH OF US, AND IF SO HOW WILL IT IMPACT OUR AREA?
THEN ALSO THE TIMING OF SAID FEATURE NEEDS TO BE ADDRESSED AS WELL.
ADDITIONALLY, WITH TEMPERATURES BEING QUITE WARM (70S TO POSSIBLY
UPPER 70S) WE NEED TO LOOK AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONGER STORMS
AS THERE WILL BE AMPLE MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE GULF DUE TO
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH QUITE FAVORABLE VORTICITY WIND PROFILES
AS WELL. ALL THIS TO SAY, IS THE CHANCES OF A SYSTEM IMPACTING TEXAS
THROUGH CHRISTMAS AND CHRISTMAS EVE LOOK TO BE INCREASING. HOWEVER,
IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT TO DETERMINE THE EXACT SPECIFICS SO STAY
TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS AS MORE CLEARER SOLUTIONS COME INTO FOCUS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. ALL TERMINALS
ARE VFR, BUT THAT WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOUR. LOW
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT IN THE SAN ANTONIO AREA THEN A
FEW HOURS LATER IN AUSTIN AND FINALLY A FEW HOURS AFTER THAT IN DEL
RIO. ALL AIRPORTS WILL DROP TO IFR/LIFR BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST CLEARING SKIES. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 64 40 67 43 / 30 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 65 38 66 41 / 30 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 67 39 68 44 / 30 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 60 35 67 40 / 40 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 65 41 71 46 / 20 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 63 35 65 40 / 40 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 67 39 69 44 / 30 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 65 38 66 42 / 30 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 67 39 64 41 / 40 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 67 41 67 46 / 30 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 69 42 68 47 / 30 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ATASCOSA-BASTROP-
CALDWELL-DE WITT-FAYETTE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-KARNES-LAVACA-LEE-
WILSON.
SHORT-TERM...BRADY
LONG-TERM...CJM
AVIATION...05
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