216
FXUS64 KEWX 182036
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
236 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
-BREEZY AND GUSTY BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
-OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU WITH 40S ELSEWHERE
-DRY AND COOLER FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY IS MOVING ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS AS OF 1 PM WITH THE TAIL END OF IT CROSSING THE MOST
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE LOCAL AREA OR DIMMIT COUNTY.
THE FRONT BROUGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES (50S) ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
AND (60S) THE I-35 CORRIDOR AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHED ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COME BACK UP TO REACH
TODAY'S HIGHS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. SKIES
CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON FOR SUNNY
CONDITIONS.
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND SPEEDS COME DOWN TO
10 MPH MID EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO
THE 40S ELSEWHERE UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO HIT THE MID TO UPPER 60S
OVER MOST PLACES UNDER SUNNY SKIES. THURSDAY'S NIGHT LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO BE WARMER THAN THOSE OF WEDNESDAY, RANGING FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND RIO GRANDE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
-NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY-SATURDAY
-RETURN OF HUMIDITY AND WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY-MONDAY
-LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND RAINFALL FOR SOME AREAS
CHRISTMAS EVE
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BACKDOOR INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL RE-ENFORCE THE
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. A LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AND
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS TO THE REGION AND HIGHER HUMIDITY, AND PERHAPS
A LOW CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE AND WEAK SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES RESPOND, WITH LOWS WARMING BACK INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S
AND HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MANY AREAS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE NEXT
WEEK WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND COLD FRONT. WHILE
THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES IN THE
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES, THE MAJORITY ARE CLUSTERED AROUND THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT IMPACTING THE AREA SOMETIME CHRISTMAS EVE
AND THE SECOND ON THE 26TH, JUST BEYOND THE 7 DAY FORECAST. BOTH
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RAINFALL TO PORTIONS
OF THE AREA, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND SPECIFICS WILL STILL NEED TO
BE REFINED OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST WED DEC 18 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO COME QUICKLY OR AROUND 18Z TO 19Z TIME
FRAME FOR AREA TERMINALS. A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA AND CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE I-35 AIRPORTS. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 28 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND SPEEDS START TO
DECREASE TO ABOUT 10 KNOTS OR LESS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE EAST TEXAS COAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 40 66 44 67 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 39 65 41 66 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 41 67 45 69 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 36 65 42 65 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 43 69 47 71 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 37 65 40 65 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 40 67 44 70 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 39 66 42 67 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 39 64 41 68 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 42 67 47 68 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 44 68 48 69 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...17
LONG-TERM...76
AVIATION...17
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