010
FXUS64 KEWX 191111
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
511 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
-BRIEF LIGHT FREEZE FOR PROTECTED VALLEYS IN THE HILL COUNTRY
EARLY THIS MORNING
-ABUNDANT SUNSHINE PREVAILS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
-A REINFORCING DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS INTO THIS MORNING, UP TO A 20 TO 30 DEGREE
CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO, AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DECLINE WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING ATOP THE REGION. A BRIEF LIGHT FREEZE WILL BE
LIKELY IN PROTECTED VALLEYS IN THE HILL COUNTRY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LLANO COUNTY WHERE THE TEMPERATURE WAS DOWN TO 34 DEGREES AS OF THE
2 AM CST HOUR. TEMPERATURES WARMUP TO SEASONABLE OR EVEN A TAD ABOVE
SEASONABLE LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON UNDER FULL SUNSHINE. THE OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COOL FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST AND THE LIGHT SURFACE FLOW BRIEFLY
TURNS EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY OR EVEN SOUTHERLY FOR A TIME.
FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO SEE SIMILAR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AS
TODAY. HOWEVER, A REINFORCING SHOT OF SOME DRIER AIR ARRIVES THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIPS INTO THE REGION
WITH NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES DEVELOPING OF AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NUDGING INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
BOUNDARY. WE'LL MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF VERY LOCALIZED ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE LOWER HUMIDITY
AND THESE MODEST NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
-CHILLY FRIDAY NIGHT
-INCREASING CONFIDENCE ON A STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA
CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS
BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY EVENING OUR OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE CHILLY FOR AREAS IN THE
HILL COUNTRY DOWN INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS. WE ARE DONE ISSUING
FREEZE WARNINGS FOR OUR CWA BUT IT MAY BE A GOOD IDEA TO BRING IN
ANY PLANTS OR SENSITIVE VEGETATION NONETHELESS. TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLE TO WARM MUCH ABOVE 60 FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THOSE IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WHERE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 ARE EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE MUCH
MORE MILD (40S TO 50S) COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS EVENING. WE WILL
THEN HAVE ONE MORE "COOLER DAY" ON SUNDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES RETURN
TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR MONDAY AND BEYOND. AS IT STANDS,
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO ON A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MAKING THERE RETURN ALL THE WAY INTO CHRISTMAS AND
BEYOND.
SPEAKING OF CHRISTMAS AND CHRISTMAS EVE, MODELS ARE HINTING AT A
STORM SYSTEM THAT COULD IMPACT THE AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. AS IT
STANDS RIGHT NOW MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THIS RUN
WITH MOST SHOWING A DEEP TROUGH IMPACTING THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN
CHRISTMAS EVE AND OR CHRISTMAS DAY. ADDITIONALLY, THE THREAT FOR
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS INCREASING, AS WELL AS MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
JUST HOW MUCH RAIN COULD BE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK TO BE
QUITE WARM FOR THE HOLIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY APPROACHING 80
NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. LASTLY, DUE TO THE INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT WE HAVE IN THIS SYSTEM HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE POPS
THROUGHOUT THE TWO-DAY PERIOD. HOWEVER, IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT TO
DETERMINE THE EXACT SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME SO STAY TUNED TO LATER
FORECASTS AS MORE CLEARER SOLUTIONS COME INTO FOCUS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER FEW TO
SKY CLEAR CONDITIONS. THE WINDS WILL TREND LIGHT THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY TO VARIABLE DIRECTIONS. A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AFTER 15Z FRIDAY AT THE 30 HR TAF SITES (KAUS
AND KSAT).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 68 44 67 37 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 67 40 66 32 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 43 69 37 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 67 41 65 34 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 71 46 73 48 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 66 39 66 32 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 69 43 70 38 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 67 41 66 35 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 67 41 67 34 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 68 46 68 40 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 68 47 69 40 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...BRADY
LONG-TERM...CJM
AVIATION...BRADY
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