487
FXUS64 KEWX 201128
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
528 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REINFORCE COOL AND DRY AIR TODAY
- A LIGHT FREEZE FORECAST SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
COOL AIR AND SLIGHTLY DECOUPLED WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW COLD
POCKETS IN THE MID 30S THIS MORNING. A MODERATE REINFORCING COLD
FRONT IS SLIPPING INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND WILL PROMOTE BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND ADDITIONAL COLD AIR ADVECTION TO TREND OUR
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE NORTH
SURFACE WINDS WILL SETTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, LEADING TO A LIGHT
FREEZE OVER PROTECTED VALLEYS OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT AREAS
NEAR THE ESCARPMENT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND THE LOW DEW POINTS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL HELP WITH DAYTIME WARMING, AND NEAR
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST FOR BOTH TODAY AND
SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES...
-SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
-CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN A STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING OUR AREA CHRISTMAS
EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
-HINTS AT A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DEVELOPING AFTER CHRISTMAS
THE START OF THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE PRETTY QUIET WEATHER WITH
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY. STARTING
SUNDAY NIGHT ABOVE NORMAL LOWS MAKE A RETURN WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
PUSHING IN A MORE MOIST AIRMASS. THIS AIRMASS WILL PREVENT LOWS FROM
DIPPING TO MUCH AND STAYING WELL ABOVE NORMAL (50S AND 60S). THE
SAME CAN BE SAID FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO REACH WELL INTO
THE 70S WITH LOWS ONCE AGAIN REMAINING IN THE 60S. ANOTHER WARM DAY
IS EXPECTED ON CHRISTMAS EVE ALONG WITH THE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SPEAKING OF THUNDERSTORMS, MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. CURRENTLY THE GLOBAL
MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS AND THE EURO HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH
AN ARRIVAL SOMEWHERE IN THE EVENING OF CHRISTMAS EVE AND SCOOTING
OUT OF HERE BY CHRISTMAS MORNING. THE DIFFERENCES IS IN JUST HOW
STRONG THIS SYSTEM IS AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE GFS AND THE CANADIAN GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A SLIGHTLY WEAKER
SYSTEM THAT DOESNT LOOK TO RAMP UP UNTIL IT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA.
WHEREAS THE EURO SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES OUR
AREA AND THEN CONTINUES TO INCREASE CONVECTIVELY AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
I'M NOT QUITE BUYING THE EURO AT THIS POINT AS IT'S STILL TOO FAR
OUT, HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE PAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS FROM
BOTH THE EURO AND THE GFS HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT ON PAINTING A
STRIPE OF CONVECTION ANYWHERE FROM THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY TO THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. OF NOTE, THE WPC HAS PLACED OUR EXTREME EASTERN
COUNTIES IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FURTHER
INCREASING OUR CONFIDENCE THAT A STORM SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO IMPACT
SOME PART OF OUR AREA. THE QUESTION STILL REMAINS, WHERE AND HOW
STRONG? THIS WILL BE FURTHER FINE TUNED AS WE CONTINUE TO GET MORE
MODEL DATA IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
AFTER THE CHRISTMAS SYSTEM MOVES OUT ANOTHER WEATHER MAKER SEEMS TO
BE HOT ON OUR TAIL. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING EVEN MORE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. SO IT SEEMS WE
MAY HAVE FINALLY TURNED THE CORNER INTO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AS
WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER PART OF DECEMBER
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIODS. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL PICK UP SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AROUND AUS LATER THIS
MORNING, BUT MOST OF THE WINDS FROM THIS FRONT SHOULD TOP OUT AT
AROUND 12KT OR LESS. LIGHTER WINDS AND SOME VEERING OF DIRECTIONS ARE
PROJECTED AT THE BACK END OF THE TAF PERIODS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 37 63 42 67 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 31 63 39 67 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 33 65 42 69 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 34 63 41 65 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 44 70 48 70 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 31 62 40 66 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 35 65 45 67 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 32 63 40 67 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 34 63 38 68 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 37 64 45 67 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 37 65 45 69 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...18
LONG-TERM...CJM
AVIATION...18
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