956
FXUS64 KEWX 202346 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
546 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 146 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER THOUGH THE WEEKEND.
- A LIGHT FREEZE IS FORECAST SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND COASTAL
PLAINS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WIND IN THE EAST WILL
WEAKEN TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA. WIND WILL BE LIGHTEST IN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT, AND WITH CLEAR SKIES FORECAST, A LIGHT FREEZE IS LIKELY
FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND
COASTAL PLAINS. ELSEWHERE LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S. LIGHT
TO MODERATE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST. WARMER LOWS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN THE WEST WHERE HIGHER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
- RETURN TO WARMER DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNS TUESDAY EVENING, WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONGER STORMS ALONG A SOUTHWARD ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE
COASTAL PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING.
- YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY APPROACH LATE WEEK AND BRING THE
THREAT FOR MORE BENEFICIAL RAINS TO THE REGION.
SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7, AS A COLD START
FOR SOME LOCATIONS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO WARM THINGS UP IN THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S, WITH PERHAPS A FEW SOUTHERN
ZONES TOUCHING 70 BRIEFLY. STRONGER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW RETURNS LATE SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE START OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE MOISTURE TO POOL OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT, WHICH IS SET TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND ACCORDINGLY, WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AND MORNINGS STARTING OUT SOMEWHAT MUGGY AND
CLOUDY, IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE FIRST OF TWO STORM SYSTEMS SET TO MOVE
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS WEEK. A SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER NORTH TEXAS LATE TUESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVES
SOUTH INTO TEXAS. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE QUICKLY
TOWARDS SUNSET AS THE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES TUESDAY
EVENING. VALUES OF 30-50 KTS ARE EXPECTED, AND IN COMBINATION WITH
MODEST INSTABILITY OF 500-1000 J/KG, MAY RESULT IN SOME STRONG STORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS OR LARGE HAIL FROM THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST
TUESDAY EVENING. FOR NOW, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DOES NOT HAVE
ANY OF THE AREA WITHIN A DAY 5 OUTLOOK, MOSTLY BECAUSE PROBABILITIES
ARE TOO LOW THIS FAR OUT TO WARRANT AN OUTLOOK, HOWEVER, THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME LOWER END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CHRISTMAS
EVE. THANKFULLY, ANY STORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT BEFORE MIDNIGHT, SO IT
SHOULDN'T DELAY SANTA'S ARRIVAL BY MUCH CHRISTMAS MORNING.
CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE COOLER AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 60S
FOR MOST. SINCE THIS AFOREMENTIONED FRONT DOESN'T HAVE MUCH POLAR AIR
BEHIND IT, IT IS UNLIKELY TO BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR TO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S, AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THE SECOND STORM SYSTEM OF THE WEEK WILL ARRIVE RIGHT ON THE
TAIL OF THE PREVIOUS STORM, MOST LIKELY SOMETIME THURSDAY. YET
ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, AND ONCE AGAIN, THEY COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE
DEPENDING ON THE TILT OF THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AND LEVEL OF
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 527 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. LIGHT NORTH TO
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS OF 6 KNOTS OR LESS ARE FORECAST FOR THE I-35
SITES FROM MID EVENING TO MID SATURDAY MORNING. FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 6 TO 8 KNOTS
AS THEY SHIFT TO AN EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH OCCASIONAL
HIGHER GUSTS. FOR KDRT, LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW REMAINS THIS EVENING INTO
LATE SATURDAY MORNING WITH WIND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 37 63 41 66 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 33 63 38 67 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 37 65 42 69 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 34 63 41 64 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 45 70 49 69 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 32 61 39 65 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 39 66 45 67 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 34 63 39 67 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 33 63 38 68 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 39 64 44 67 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 40 66 45 69 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...17
LONG-TERM...PLATT
AVIATION...17
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