508  
FXUS64 KEWX 210450 AAA  
AFDEWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX  
1050 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 146 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024  
 
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- QUIET WEATHER THOUGH THE WEEKEND.  
- A LIGHT FREEZE IS FORECAST SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE HILL  
COUNTRY AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND COASTAL  
PLAINS.  
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS  
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WIND IN THE EAST WILL  
WEAKEN TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE  
AREA. WIND WILL BE LIGHTEST IN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA  
OVERNIGHT, AND WITH CLEAR SKIES FORECAST, A LIGHT FREEZE IS LIKELY  
FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND  
COASTAL PLAINS. ELSEWHERE LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 30S TO MID  
40S. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED  
FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S. LIGHT  
TO MODERATE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON  
AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST. WARMER LOWS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY  
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S WITH  
INCREASING CLOUD COVER EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN THE WEST WHERE HIGHER  
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 146 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- RETURN TO WARMER DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  
- THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNS TUESDAY EVENING, WITH THE  
POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONGER STORMS ALONG A SOUTHWARD ADVANCING  
COLD FRONT. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE  
COASTAL PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING.  
- YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY APPROACH LATE WEEK AND BRING THE  
THREAT FOR MORE BENEFICIAL RAINS TO THE REGION.  
 
SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7, AS A COLD START  
FOR SOME LOCATIONS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO WARM THINGS UP IN THE  
AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S, WITH PERHAPS A FEW SOUTHERN  
ZONES TOUCHING 70 BRIEFLY. STRONGER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE  
FLOW RETURNS LATE SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE START OF THE UPCOMING  
WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE MOISTURE TO POOL OVER THE AREA AHEAD  
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT, WHICH IS SET TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY.  
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND ACCORDINGLY, WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S  
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AND MORNINGS STARTING OUT SOMEWHAT MUGGY AND  
CLOUDY, IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S.  
 
OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE FIRST OF TWO STORM SYSTEMS SET TO MOVE  
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS WEEK. A SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN  
OVER NORTH TEXAS LATE TUESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVES  
SOUTH INTO TEXAS. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION  
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE QUICKLY  
TOWARDS SUNSET AS THE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES TUESDAY  
EVENING. VALUES OF 30-50 KTS ARE EXPECTED, AND IN COMBINATION WITH  
MODEST INSTABILITY OF 500-1000 J/KG, MAY RESULT IN SOME STRONG STORMS  
WITH GUSTY WINDS OR LARGE HAIL FROM THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST  
TUESDAY EVENING. FOR NOW, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DOES NOT HAVE  
ANY OF THE AREA WITHIN A DAY 5 OUTLOOK, MOSTLY BECAUSE PROBABILITIES  
ARE TOO LOW THIS FAR OUT TO WARRANT AN OUTLOOK, HOWEVER, THE  
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME LOWER END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CHRISTMAS  
EVE. THANKFULLY, ANY STORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT BEFORE MIDNIGHT, SO IT  
SHOULDN'T DELAY SANTA'S ARRIVAL BY MUCH CHRISTMAS MORNING.  
 
CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE COOLER AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 60S  
FOR MOST. SINCE THIS AFOREMENTIONED FRONT DOESN'T HAVE MUCH POLAR AIR  
BEHIND IT, IT IS UNLIKELY TO BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR TO THE  
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO  
MIDDLE 70S, AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S THROUGH LATE  
WEEK. THE SECOND STORM SYSTEM OF THE WEEK WILL ARRIVE RIGHT ON THE  
TAIL OF THE PREVIOUS STORM, MOST LIKELY SOMETIME THURSDAY. YET  
ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS, AND ONCE AGAIN, THEY COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE  
DEPENDING ON THE TILT OF THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AND LEVEL OF  
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE  
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. LIGHT NORTH TO  
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS OF 6 KNOTS OR LESS ARE FORECAST FOR THE I-35  
SITES OVERNIGHT TO MID SATURDAY MORNING. FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE  
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 6 TO 8 KNOTS AS THEY SHIFT  
TO AN EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. FOR  
KDRT, LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVERNIGHT INTO LATE SATURDAY  
MORNING WITH WIND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. A  
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AROUND 18Z TO ABOUT 22Z IS FORECAST FOR KDRT  
WITH GUSTS AROUND 18 TO 20 KNOTS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 37 63 41 66 / 0 0 0 0  
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 33 63 38 67 / 0 0 0 0  
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 37 65 42 69 / 0 0 0 0  
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 34 63 41 64 / 0 0 0 0  
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 45 70 49 69 / 0 0 0 0  
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 32 61 39 65 / 0 0 0 0  
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 39 66 45 67 / 0 0 0 0  
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 34 63 39 67 / 0 0 0 0  
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 33 63 38 68 / 0 0 0 0  
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 39 64 44 67 / 0 0 0 0  
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 40 66 45 69 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT-TERM...17  
LONG-TERM...CJM  
AVIATION...17  
 
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