094
FXUS64 KEWX 150448 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1048 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES...
- RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 WEDNESDAY.
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH
OBSERVATIONS ALSO SHOWING A DECK OF CLOUDS IN THE 5-6K AGL RANGE
SPREADING NORTHWARD WITH TIME. THE CLOUDS ARE COURTESY OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND BASED ON THE LATEST DATA, WE WILL SEE THIS PATTERN
REMAIN INTACT OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONTINUED WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT ACROSS THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION. THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
WARMER COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT AND MOST AREAS WILL SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. A FEW SPOTS ACROSS NORTHERN VAL VERDE
INTO NORTHERN EDWARDS COUNTIES COULD SEE TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR
FREEZING AS LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT MOVE INTO THIS AREA UNTIL SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS EXPANDING NORTHWARD FROM THE COASTAL AND RIO GRANDE
PLAINS INTO MOST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS, BUT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 1/4" FOR THE REGION.
CLOUDS, LIGHT RAIN AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN
IN THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDS
SKIES ARE IN STORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITATION ENDS. LOOK FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES...
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY
- VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE(80-100%) FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OCCURRING SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- LOW CONFIDENCE OF PRECIPITATION(0-20%) OCCURRING MONDAY-TUESDAY
THURSDAY CONTINUES OUR WARMING TREND WITH MOST AREA'S HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. FRIDAY LOOKS WARMER WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 70 WITH A BIT MORE CLOUDS COMPARED TO
THURSDAY. FOR SATURDAY TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 ALTHOUGH COULD BE WARMER DEPENDING ON WHEN THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER WHAT IS AGREED UPON BY THE MODELS IS
THE CRASHING OF TEMPS DUE TO STRONG CAA STARTING SATURDAY EVENING
WITH LOWS WAKING UP SUNDAY MORNING AROUND 30 DEGREES FOR MOST WITH
AREAS IN THE HILL COUNTRY IN THE MID 20S. THUS A HARD FREEZE IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES DO NOT REBOUND MUCH FOR SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS BARELY REACHING 50 WITH THE HILL COUNTRY LOOKING TO BE
STUCK IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
SPEAKING OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES..FOLLOWING THIS ARCTIC AIR
BLAST LOW TEMPS FOR MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
AREAWIDE WITH SOME TEENS SHOWING UP IN THE HILL COUNTRY. HIGHS AND
LOW TEMPERATURES TREND COLDER EACH DAY THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS LOOKS TO BE A MORE PROLONGED COLD SNAP WHICH IS
SOMETHING WE HAVEN'T REALLY HAD THIS WINTER SO FAR. ANOTHER THING TO
KEEP IS MIND IS COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR
SEVERAL DAYS IF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO TREND COLDER. NOW IS THE
TIME TO PREPARE THE FOUR P'S PEOPLE, PETS, PIPES, AND PLANTS.
REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES, THERE ARE SOME SIGNS FROM THE ENSEMBLES AND
GLOBAL MODELS OF SOME FORM OF PRECIP OCCURRING DURING THE MONDAY TO
TUESDAY TIMEFRAME HOWEVER AS WE SAW WITH THE LAST SYSTEM ITS FAR TOO
EARLY TO STATE SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME. STAY TUNED TO FUTURE
FORECASTS AS MORE DETAILS COME INTO FOCUS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT THREE HOURS BEFORE CIGS
LOWER TO MVFR FOR THE SAN ANTONIO AIRPORTS. LIGHT DRIZZLE/RAIN IS
FORECAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. LIGHT WINDS
FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
FOR THE I-35 SITES AND FROM THE EAST, VARIABLE AND NORTHWEST FOR KDRT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN MIDDAY WEDNESDAY ACROSS ALL
AREA SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 44 58 39 67 / 10 20 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 45 57 37 66 / 20 20 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 45 57 39 66 / 20 30 0 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 40 57 36 64 / 10 10 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 43 62 42 66 / 10 10 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 42 57 35 65 / 10 10 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 45 58 37 64 / 20 20 0 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 45 56 37 65 / 20 30 0 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 46 55 37 64 / 20 40 10 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 46 57 40 64 / 20 30 0 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 47 57 40 65 / 30 40 0 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...17
LONG-TERM...27
AVIATION...17
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