041
FXUS64 KEWX 152348 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
548 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES...
- WARMING TREND BEGINS THURSDAY.
A FEW LIGHT RADAR ECHOES CONTINUE MAINLY EAST OF I-35 THIS
AFTERNOON. WE WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST, BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. OTHERWISE, SOME CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS WILL
OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT, BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH SOME CLEARING, LIGHT WINDS AND
FAIRLY LOW DEW POINTS, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S
TO LOWER 40S. A WARMING TREND IS IN STORE ON THURSDAY AS HIGHS
RECOVER BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S, WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. INCREASING MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL YIELD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES...
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY
- VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE(90-100%) FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OCCURRING SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HARD FREEZES AND COLD
WEATHER PRODUCTS LIKELY
- STILL LOW CONFIDENCE OF PRECIPITATION(10-30%) OCCURRING MONDAY-
WEDNESDAY
FRIDAY CONTINUES OUR WARMING TREND WITH MOST HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND
70 WITH A BIT MORE CLOUDS COMPARED TO THURSDAY. THE BIG CHANGE TO
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE TIMING OF THE DRY COLD FRONT. YESTERDAY
IT LOOKED AS IF THE FRONT WOULD LAG A BIT AND COME THROUGH DURING
THE EVENING HOWEVER, TODAY MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE FRONT
WILL BE COMING IN MUCH FASTER. WE NOW HAVE THE FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH
THE AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY. AS SUCH TEMPERATURES WERE SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED, IN FACT SATURDAY IS NOW LOOKING TO HAVE HIGH TEMPS PEAK
EARLY IN THE AM AND REMAINING STEADY OR POSSIBLY FALLING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THIS RESULTED IN HIGHS FOR SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 50S FOR THE
HILL COUNTRY AND AREAS NW TO UPPER 60S SW AND ALONG I-10 CORRIDOR.
SOME 70S ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. TEMPS THEN
CRASH THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DUE TO STRONG CAA WITH LOW
TEMPS FORECASTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING FOR ALL EXCEPT EXTREME FAR SW
PORTIONS OF MAVERICK AND DIMMIT COUNTIES. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AS
WIND CHILL VALUES LOOK TO GET DOWN INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY AND LOWER 20S ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR ON SOUTH. THUS A HARD
FREEZE IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES DO NOT REBOUND MUCH FOR
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S EXCEPT THE HILL COUNTRY WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BE STUCK IN THE LOW 40S WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE(90-100%) FOR WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WHICH COINCIDES
WITH THE LATEST OUTLOOK FROM THE CPC WHICH SHOWS ALL OF OUR AREA AT
THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
SPEAKING OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES..FOLLOWING THIS ARCTIC AIR
BLAST LOW TEMPS FOR MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
AREAWIDE WITH SOME TEENS SHOWING UP IN THE HILL COUNTRY. WHEN
FACTORING IN JUST A LIGHT WIND OF 10-15MPH, WIND CHILL VALUES
PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND TEENS AREA
WIDE. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AN EXTREME COLD WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. ADDITIONALLY, SOME AREAS OF THE HILL
COUNTRY COULD EXPERIENCE A LONG DURATION FREEZE WITH MORE THEN 48
HOURS OF CONSECUTIVE TEMPS BELOW FREEZING. HIGHS AND LOW TEMPERATURES
TREND COLDER EACH DAY THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
REALLY, THIS LOOKS TO BE A MORE PROLONGED COLD SNAP WHICH IS
SOMETHING WE HAVEN'T REALLY HAD THIS WINTER SO FAR. NOW IS THE TIME
TO PREPARE THE FOUR P'S PEOPLE, PETS, PIPES, AND PLANTS.
REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES, THERE ARE SOME SIGNS FROM THE ENSEMBLES
AND GLOBAL MODELS OF SOME FORM OF PRECIP OCCURRING DURING THE MONDAY
TO WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. THE BIG QUESTION MARK IS HOW FAST THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMES IN AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IT WILL HAVE TO WORK
WITH. RIGHT NOW MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN TIMING AND
MOISTURE. RECENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS THE DISTURBANCE COMING IN
STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED BUT THE ORIENTATION AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE
THAT COMES WITH IT IS STILL UP IN THE AIR AT THIS POINT. WITH OUR
LAST EVENT THIS PAST WEEK MOISTURE WASN'T THE ISSUE BUT RATHER JUST
HOW COLD TEMPERATURES WOULD GET. THIS TIME AROUND IS THE OPPOSITE,
BEING WE ARE FAR MORE CONFIDENT THAT TEMPS WILL BE VERY COLD BUT WE
ARE WAITING TO SEE HOW MUCH MOISTURE THIS SYSTEM REALLY HAS TO WORK
WITH. HOWEVER, AS WE SAW WITH THE LAST SYSTEM IT'S FAR TOO EARLY
(STILL 5-6 DAYS OUT) TO STATE SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME. STAY TUNED TO
FUTURE FORECASTS AS MORE DETAILS COME INTO FOCUS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 542 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
VFR CIGS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS CYCLE WITH HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING FROM THE WEST. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 38 65 44 67 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 36 65 40 68 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 38 66 42 70 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 37 63 42 67 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 41 67 45 72 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 35 64 42 66 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 37 65 41 68 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 37 65 40 68 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 36 64 40 70 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 40 65 44 68 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 40 65 43 70 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...17
LONG-TERM...YB
AVIATION...17
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