483
FXUS64 KEWX 161738
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1138 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES...
- WARMING TREND.
A LOW AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING OVER TEXAS THIS MORNING.
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS PRODUCING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND WINDS
ACROSS OUR CWA ARE GENERALLY LIGHT. A WARMING TREND IS IN STORE
STARTING TODAY AS HIGHS RECOVER BACK INTO THE 60S, PERHAPS EVEN 70
IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST, WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.
INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT ALONG WITH A
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL YIELD OVERNIGHT LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 40S. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY BRINGING MORE WARM AIR. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND FIVE DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES...
- VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE (90-100%) FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OCCURRING SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HARD FREEZES AND COLD
WEATHER PRODUCTS LIKELY.
- LOW CONFIDENCE OF PRECIPITATION (10-30%) OCCURRING MAINLY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE WARMEST NIGHT OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY BRINGING PROLONGED
COLD CONDITIONS BACK TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES
EARLY ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S FOR
NORTHERN AREAS WHILE THOSE IN THE SOUTH WARM INTO THE MID 60S OR MID
70S IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WITH A HARD FREEZE EXPECTED OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU WITH FREEZING OR NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ELSEWHERE. BREEZY NORTH WIND LINGERS BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SUNDAY
WITH WIND CHILL VALUES SUNDAY MORNING IN THE TEENS OR 20S. HIGH
PRESSURE SUNDAY WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES AND CHILLY HIGHS IN THE
40S TO LOW 50S. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK WITH VERY
COLD LOW TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS EACH NIGHT.
THE COLDEST DAYS OF THE WEEK LOOK TO BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S ARE EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY WITH
WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS DUE TO BREEZY EASTERLY
WIND. UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH
BREEZY WIND CONTINUING ALONG WITH OVERCAST SKIES BUILDING INTO THE
AREA. ANOTHER NIGHT OF WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS IS
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 30S ARE
FORECAST TUESDAY WITH SOME LOCATIONS, MAINLY THE HILL COUNTRY AND
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, POSSIBLY NOT RISING ABOVE FREEZING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
COULD BRING A LONG DURATION FREEZE FOR SOME AROUND 36-48 HOURS
DEPENDING ON LOCATION. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY
BE ISSUED, POSSIBLY AN EXTREME COLD WARNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
COLD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT NBM TEMPERATURES DO TREND SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. GIVEN THE HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR
TEMPERATURES, NOW IS THE TIME TO PREPARE FOR THE COLD.
DIVING INTO PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE BEST TIMING
STILL APPEARS TO BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE HAS COME
IN SLIGHTLY DRIER. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING AT LEAST SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT A WARM LAYER ABOVE
THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO MUDDLE THE SOLUTION OF IF PRECIPITATION
FALLS AS RAIN OR SOME KIND OF WINTRY MIX, OR A BIT OF BOTH IF IT
TRANSITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE CONTINUED POPS AT AROUND 30 PERCENT
FOR NOW DURING THIS EARLY WEEK TIMEFRAME GIVEN MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES. STAY TUNED AND KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE ANY TRAVEL PLANS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE CURRENT
FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OR LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY EVENING, WITH MOST SITES TRENDING TO
MORE OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WE WILL ALSO
INCLUDE A MENTION OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AT AUS AND SAT BEGINNING LATE
TOMORROW MORNING. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 64 43 68 46 / 0 0 10 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 65 40 68 45 / 0 0 10 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 67 41 70 46 / 0 0 10 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 63 42 68 42 / 0 0 10 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 67 48 73 46 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 64 41 67 43 / 0 0 10 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 65 41 69 44 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 65 40 68 44 / 0 0 10 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 64 40 69 46 / 0 0 10 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 65 44 68 46 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 66 43 71 47 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...PLATT
LONG-TERM...BRADY
AVIATION...PLATT
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