831
FXUS64 KEWX 162021
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
221 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES...
- WARMING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY.
WE EXPECT TO SEE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AS WINDS GRADUALLY TREND TO A MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER
WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. WE COULD SEE SOME LOWER ELEVATION SITES IN THE HILL
COUNTRY DROP INTO THE MID 30S WHERE WINDS GO CALM. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY AS SOUTH WINDS BECOME GUSTY ACROSS
MOST AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL
BE QUITE MILD, WITH 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
WHERE SOME MID TO UPPER 30S ARE EXPECTED. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
LOWER DUE TO A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MAKE QUICK SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AND SHOULD BE
INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS REGION AROUND SUNRISE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
-COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS FEATURING HAZARDOUS COLD ARRIVES SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK
-CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS; LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCES OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
-PROMOTE AND PRACTICE COLD WEATHER SAFETY; PEOPLE, PETS, PLANTS,
AND PIPES.
-PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE AND TEMPERATURES START MODIFYING
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
A COOLER AND DRIER MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW ESTABLISHES SATURDAY
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT OVERNIGHT. AFTERNOON HIGHS UNDERNEATH AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S FROM THE HILL COUNTRY AND THE
NORTHERN I-35 CORRIDOR INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST. THE SECONDARY AND MORE PRONOUNCED PUSH OF THE COLD,
ARCTIC AIR THEN ARRIVES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS RESULTS IN
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE 20S AND WIND CHILLS INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
EARLY SUNDAY WHILE ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S
WITH MINIMUM WIND CHILLS INTO THE 20S. SUNDAY, UNDERNEATH CONTINUED
SUNSHINE, SHOULD SEE SOME WARMING WITH DIURNAL HEATING, WITH HIGHS
RANGING BETWEEN 40 AND 50 DEGREES.
THE MOST HAZARDOUS COLD WEATHER OCCURS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL TREND IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
WHILE THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY TO THE LOW TO MID 20S ELSEWHERE. MINIMUM WIND CHILLS DROP
DOWN INTO THE TEENS WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGIT VALUES POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY. WHILE A
LONG DURATION FREEZE EXCEEDING 36+ HOURS STILL REMAINS WITHIN THE
POSSIBILITY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY, THE LATEST HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST DOES INDICATE THAT THE DAYTIME HIGHS AT LEAST
BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK EACH DAY. NONETHELESS, GIVEN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER, EXPECT FOR THE LIKELY ISSUANCE OF COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES AS WE GO THROUGH THIS STRETCH. HELP PROMOTE AND
PRACTICE COLD WEATHER SAFETY (THE 4 P'S OF COLD WEATHER ALONG WITH
PROPER SPACE HEATER OPERATION).
LET'S ADVANCE ON TO THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE MOISTURE AND THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS FROM LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT ARE GENERATING THE
MOST UNCERTAINTY ARE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH ALONG/OFF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS AND A MAJORITY OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING A MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS IS A
DRIER AND LESS IMPACTFUL EVENT ACROSS THE REGION AS IT LEADS TO A
WEAKER COASTAL TROUGH AND STUNTS THE MOISTURE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH
INTO MAINLY SOUTH TEXAS. THIS ALSO IS A WARMER SOLUTION WITH THE
CLOUDS EVEN CLEARING OUT TO THE NORTH. NOW ONTO THE CONTRAST, THE
CANADIAN AND IT'S ENSEMBLE SUITE, IT'S SLOWER AND MUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL ALSO SUPPORT
STRONGER COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT AND A FARTHER NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WOULD BE A COLDER AND
MORE IMPACTFUL EVENT ACROSS THE REGION, IF IT WERE TO VERIFY. THE
ECMWF AND THE MAJORITY OF IT'S ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SITTING IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS AND NEAR THE MEDIAN OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS IN REGARDS TO THE 500 MB PATTERN. THIS WILL BE WHERE OUR
LATEST FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARDS.
AS A RESULT OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN AS
HIGHLIGHTED ABOVE, LOW TO MEDIUM (20 TO 40%) CONFIDENCE REMAINS FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS DURING LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH BETTER CONFIDENCE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THAT COASTAL LOW/TROUGH. FOR OUR REGION, QPF WILL BE
QUITE LIGHT, MAINLY BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH. A MIX OF PRECIPITATION
TYPES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
THE WARM NOSE ALOFT WILL BE SMALL OR NON-EXISTENT FARTHER TOWARDS
THE NORTH WHERE SNOW COULD BE THE MOST FAVORED. THE WARM NOSE THEN
BECOMES STRONGER FARTHER SOUTH. A WINTRY MIX COULD ALIGN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND INTO SAN ANTONIO. THEN FARTHER
SOUTH, A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX COULD BE MORE PREVALENT. THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO SHUT OFF BY WEDNESDAY BUT THERE STILL
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THIS RANGE AS WELL AND EXPECT FOR
TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY MODIFY BUT REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE CURRENT
FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OR LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY EVENING, WITH MOST SITES TRENDING TO
MORE OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WE WILL ALSO
INCLUDE A MENTION OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AT AUS AND SAT BEGINNING LATE
TOMORROW MORNING. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 43 68 46 59 / 0 10 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 40 68 45 59 / 0 10 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 41 70 46 63 / 0 10 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 42 68 42 56 / 0 10 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 48 73 46 70 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 41 67 43 56 / 0 10 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 41 69 44 67 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 40 68 44 61 / 0 10 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 40 69 46 59 / 0 10 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 44 68 46 63 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 43 71 47 65 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...PLATT
LONG-TERM...BRADY
AVIATION...PLATT
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