356
FXUS64 KEWX 181658
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1058 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY MORNING.
- WIND CHILL VALUES 10 DEGREES OR LOWER HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU. WIND CHILL VALUES 10-20 DEGREES I-35 CORRIDOR AND COASTAL
PLAINS. WIND CHILLS ABOVE 20 SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN
NORTHERLY WINDS AND A COOLING TREND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL START TO BE AFFECTED WITH 50S ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY AND NORTHERN I-35 CORRIDOR. THE COOLER AIR WILL NOT MAKE
IT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FROM THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU TO THE COASTAL PLAINS AND 70S OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING
INTO THE 20S AND 30S. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS OR 15-20 MPH WILL SEND
WIND CHILL VALUES TO ADVISORY LEVELS. THE WIND CHILLS WILL BE 10
DEGREES OR LOWER OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU AND 10-20
DEGREES OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND COASTAL PLAINS. WE HAVE ISSUED A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS FOR MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL 9 AM
SUNDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, BUT
WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE
FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE HILL COUNTRY TO NEAR 50 IN THE SOUTHERN RIO
GRANDE PLAINS WITH MOST OF THE CWA IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- THERE IS VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE (NEAR 100%) THAT HARD FREEZES WILL
OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. PROTECT PEOPLE, PETS,
PLANTS, AND PIPES FROM THE COLD WEATHER.
- THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE (60-70%) OF WINTER PRECIPITATION OCCURRING
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY,
I-35 CORRIDOR, AND COASTAL PLAINS, WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF
MINOR TO MODERATE TRAVEL IMPACTS.
- THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (20-50%) OF WINTER PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING ACROSS THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY, SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE.
A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING, WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND LOW TO
MID 20S FOR MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. WHILE WIND SPEEDS WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, AS WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND 10-15 DEGREES
WILL BE COMMON FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
CONDITIONS START VERY COLD AND MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MLK JR DAY. WE DO
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL LIKELY PUT A CAP ON HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY, I-35 CORRIDOR, AND
COASTAL PLAINS, AND LOW TO MID 40S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON THE SPEED AND SHARPNESS OF
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
NIGHT, WHICH LEADS TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN WINTER PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH HOW QUICKLY THE
COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY AND H85 FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE ON HOW QUICKLY
PRECIPITATION ENDS AND WINTER PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION TYPE, MOST TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARDS
INCREASED ODDS OF A MIXED BAG OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT NEAR AND SOUTH OF U.S. 90/I-10 AND SNOW/SLEET NORTH OF
THIS. A DEEPER DIVE INTO FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WARM NOSE
ALOFT INITIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS IN ADDITION TO A DRY LAYER, AT
LEAST INITIALLY, WITHIN THE MORE FAVORABLE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE
REGION. THIS HAS ALL LED TO INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND INTO THE
SAN ANTONIO METRO AREA. A CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS IS STILL POSSIBLE TUESDAY
MORNING, ALBEIT IT LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE (20-40%).
FARTHER NORTH, ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE TRENDED NORTHEAST WITH HEAVIER
SNOW AMOUNTS. PROBABILITIES ABOVE 40% FOR 1 INCH OR MORE OF SNOW ARE
MAINLY CONFINED NORTH OF I-10 AND EAST OF I-35, WITH PROBABILITIES
OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF SNOW IN THE 20-40% RANGE THROUGH THE I-35
CORRIDOR AND EASTERN HILL COUNTRY. THE WINTER STORM SEVERITY INDEX
CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASES IN PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR TO MODERATE
TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY, I-35 CORRIDOR, AND
COASTAL PLAINS. ADDITIONAL FLUCTUATIONS IN FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR THE
ICE VS SNOW, AS WELL AS ACCUMULATIONS, ARE LIKELY.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY REMAIN VERY CHILLY, ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR
THE HILL COUNTRY, I-35 CORRIDOR, AND COASTAL PLAINS, UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT SOME BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY, I-35 CORRIDOR,
AND COASTAL PLAINS COULD REMAIN IMPACTED WELL AFTER PRECIPITATION
ENDS, POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, WHERE HIGHS STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT
OUT OF THE LOW 30S OR WHERE ANY RE-FREEZING OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT.
CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO THE COLDEST NIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST IN TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR
MOST AREAS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW FINALLY RESUMES DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE. THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY'S
FORECAST, AS THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, AND A POSSIBLE COASTAL
LOW. WE'LL HAVE TO AGAIN MONITOR THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLOSELY
BUT WE'LL GET TO THOSE DETAILS AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER FEW TO SKY CLEAR CONDITIONS. MODERATE
NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
TO 22 KNOTS. A BRIEF DECREASE IN THE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING BEFORE A SECONDARY AND STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER, NORTHERLY
WINDS ARRIVE. THESE WINDS WILL RESULT IN GUSTS ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR TO REACH INTO THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. WINDS WILL TREND
SLIGHTLY WEAKER TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE AND DEL RIO. WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH LATE IN THE 30 HR TAF PERIOD AT KAUS AND KSAT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 59 29 43 22 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 60 29 43 20 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 64 30 44 22 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 56 26 39 20 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 72 33 48 27 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 56 26 41 19 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 68 30 47 23 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 62 29 43 20 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 60 30 43 23 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 65 31 45 24 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 67 32 46 26 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DE WITT-
EDWARDS-FAYETTE-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-KENDALL-
KERR-KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-UVALDE-VAL VERDE-
WILLIAMSON-WILSON.
SHORT-TERM...05
LONG-TERM...76
AVIATION...BRADY
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