086
FXUS64 KEWX 152344
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
544 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE WEST
THROUGH THIS EVENING
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, A PACIFIC FRONT WAS BISECTING THE CWA WITH
CLEAR SKIES TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND LOW CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG
TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AND WARMER AIR BEHIND IT. GUSTY
WIND IS NOTED IN THE WEST AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH QUICKLY DROPPING HUMIDITY. ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE SEEN THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO THESE
FACTORS. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. HIGHS
TODAY WILL PEAK IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S FOR MOST, BUT THE MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT-LIVED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT LATE TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A NOSEDIVE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD CANADIAN
AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING IN THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. DUE TO BREEZY
NORTHERLY WIND BEHIND THIS FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL LIKE THEY
ARE IN THE 20S IN THE NORTH. WINDS STAY ELEVATED THROUGH MOST THE
DAY SUNDAY, DECREASING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW AVERAGE FOR MOST SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH AREAS ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE MAY STILL RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WIND WILL AID IN TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND
30S SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARMER TO START THE WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS IN MUCH COLDER
AIR TO END THE WEEK, COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
- SLIGHT CHANCE (20-30%) OF A COLD RAIN LATE TUESDAY FOR NORTHERN
I-35 CORRIDOR AND THE COASTAL PLAINS OTHERWISE DRY FOR MOST.
THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OFF WARMER WITH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 60S FOR MONDAY AND EVEN WARMER WITH 70S LIKELY ON
TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT IS WHEN THE SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR
US BEGINS AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS OUR AREA. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A COLDER RAIN(20-30%) FOR AREAS IN THE
NORTHERN I-35 CORRIDOR AND ALSO THE COASTAL PLAINS. RECENT GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE REALLY BACKED AWAY FROM WINTRY PRECIP LET ALONE MUCH RAIN
FALLING AT ALL WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING ACROSS EAST TX.
STILL DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF POPS GOING IN THE FORECAST IN
CASE THE MODELS DECIDE TO SHOWCASE THE PRECIP FORMING FURTHER WEST
ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S AREA-WIDE BEHIND THIS
FRONT. HOWEVER THE WIND CHILL OR FEELS LIKE TEMPS DUE TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FEEL MORE LIKE IN THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS.
THIS WILL BE MADE TO FEEL EVEN COLDER AS TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE
FALLING FROM THE 70S EARLIER IN THE DAY! BEHIND THIS FRONT WE DO NOT
WARM UP MUCH FOR THURSDAY WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE
40S AND EVEN THE 30S FOR SOME. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED WITH EXTREME COLD WARNINGS POSSIBLE AS WELL. WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY LOOK TO BE THE PEAK OF THIS COLDER AIR MASS FOR US AS TEMPS
START TO WARM UP SLIGHTLY COME FRIDAY INTO THE MID 40S. TEMPS LOOK TO
FINALLY MODERATE SOME COME SATURDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 50S
FOR MOST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NW WINDS PREVAIL EARLY THIS
EVENING JUST WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR, BEHIND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT.
GUSTS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
AT DRT AND ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. THIS PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE I-35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z, WITH SW WINDS AT AUS AND
SAT TURNING NW. A POLAR COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH A N WIND DEVELOPING BEHIND IT
THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY, I-35 CORRIDOR, AND COASTAL PLAINS. GUSTS
BETWEEN 20-30 KT WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE POLAR FRONT OVERNIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 217 AM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
NORTHWEST WIND FROM 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE SEEN THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS, EDWARDS PLATEAU, AND PORTIONS
OF THE HILL COUNTRY. HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO FALL IN THESE
LOCATIONS, EVENTUALLY LOWERING INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED FOR THOSE
AREAS DUE TO THESE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. FIRE MAPS
INDICATE HIGH FIRE DANGER AND LOW PERCENTILE 10 HOUR FUELS ACROSS A
SMALL PORTION OF THIS AREA BRINGING A BRIEF POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WINTER GARDEN TO NEAR I-35,
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGHER AND WINDS WILL BE LOWER RESULTING
IN ONLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 37 55 33 63 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 36 54 30 64 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 39 58 32 65 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 33 52 31 62 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 43 67 38 68 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 34 52 30 63 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 41 62 32 66 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 37 56 30 65 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 37 54 29 65 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 40 59 34 65 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 42 61 33 67 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...27
LONG-TERM...CJM
AVIATION...76
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