404
FXUS64 KEWX 161723
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1123 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- FREEZE PARTS OF THE AREA EACH MORNING, UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON
YET ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF CANADIAN FRONTS IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A FREEZE IS EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL
COUNTRY DUE TO THE COLD ADVECTION. IN SPITE OF AMPLE SUNSHINE TODAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND WELL BELOW AVERAGE. A TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAINTAINS BREEZY NORTHERLY LOWER LEVEL
FLOW CREATING QUITE CHILLY WIND CHILLS, ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT LEADING
TO LIGHTER WINDS. THIS, ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEWPOINTS
RESULTS IN NEARLY EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. A FREEZE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST AREAS EARLY MONDAY MORNING, EXCEPT ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND IN THE URBAN CORES OF AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO.
LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO BE ONLY SLIGHTLY COLDER
THAN TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON
MONDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW. WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS
BY EVENING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- QUICK WARM UP ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY ARGUABLY THE STRONGEST COLD
FRONT OF THE WINTER SEASON TUESDAY EVENING.
- QUICK ROUND OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE THREAT FOR WINTRY
PRECIP QUICKLY DECREASING.
- THERE IS NOW A MEDIUM CHANCE THAT COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES AND/OR
EXTREME COLD WARNINGS WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED.
OUR ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AT THE
500MB LEVEL, THINGS REMAIN MOSTLY ZONAL, BUT SOME SUBTLE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WORKING INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING. BASED OFF THE LAST STRONG POLAR FRONT
MOVING IN EARLIER THAN GLOBAL GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED, HAVE OPTED TO
COOL THINGS A BIT MORE TOWARDS THE NBM 25TH PERCENTILE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THAT MIGHT EVEN BE CONSERVATIVE IF THE FRONT ARRIVES IN
THE AFTERNOON INSTEAD OF THE EVENING HOURS. SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH A BRIEF CHANCE AT POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS, BUT
THE TREND HAS NOT BEEN OUR FRIEND IN THE PRECIP DEPARTMENT. THINGS
CONTINUE TO TREND FURTHER EAST WITH RESPECT TO THOSE RAIN CHANCES AND
WE MAY EVEN JUST SEE A COMPLETELY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THIS PACE.
SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE HILL COUNTRY MAY SEE A NEARLY 50 DEGREE DROP
IN TEMPERATURES FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT'LL BE
QUITE A SHOCK TO THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER, THIS COLD IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
LONG LIVED AS THE AIRMASS RESPONSIBLE IS QUITE SHALLOW, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AROUND 925MB AND UP. IN ANY MATTER, IT WILL
BE TOUGH TO MOVE IT OUT OF HERE, BUT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DO SO BY
LATE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE NEXT WEEKEND. WE MAY SEE
ANOTHER QUICK SHOT AT RAIN ON FRIDAY, BUT AT THIS DISTANCE, THERE IS
A LOT THAT CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BREEZY NORTHERLY WIND CONTINUES THE NEXT FEW HOURS, DECREASING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS INCLUDING THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND IS FIRST
SEEN AT DRT AFTER 06Z AND THEN ALL SITES LATE MONDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 53 33 63 53 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 53 30 64 51 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 56 31 65 53 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 51 30 62 50 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 66 38 69 50 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 52 30 62 50 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 61 31 67 51 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 54 30 64 50 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 52 30 64 52 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 58 33 65 53 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 60 33 67 54 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...04
LONG-TERM...MMM
AVIATION...27
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page