953
FXUS64 KEWX 162334
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
534 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIDESPREAD NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
CLEAR SKIES AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WIND ARE KEEPING CONDITIONS MUCH
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WIND WILL RELAX
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH MAINLY
LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND
30S TONIGHT WITH A MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS SEEING TEMPERATURES AT OR
BELOW 32 DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST MONDAY RETURNING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE AREA. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TOMORROW, BUT WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY COOL IN THE LOW 60S AND LOW
70S. INCREASING CLOUD COVER MONDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES
WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARMTH CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS IN MUCH
COLDER AIR TO END THE WEEK, COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE
LIKELY(70-80%) AND EXTREME COLD WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.
- SLIGHT CHANCE (20-30%) OF A COLD RAIN LATE TUESDAY FOR THE COASTAL
PLAINS OTHERWISE DRY FOR MOST WITH NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ON FRIDAY.
IT'L BE QUITE WARM WITH 70S LIKELY ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT IS WHEN
THE SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR US BEGINS AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS OUR AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
COLDER RAIN(20-30%) FOR AREAS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS. RECENT GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHY AWAY FROM WINTRY PRECIP LET ALONE MUCH RAIN
FALLING AT ALL WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING ACROSS EAST TX.
STILL DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF POPS GOING IN THE FORECAST IN
CASE THE MODELS DECIDE TO SHOWCASE THE PRECIP FORMING FURTHER WEST
ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S AREA-WIDE BEHIND THIS
FRONT. HOWEVER, THE WIND CHILL OR FEELS LIKE TEMPS DUE TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FEEL MORE LIKE IN THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS.
THIS WILL BE MADE TO FEEL EVEN COLDER AS TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE
FALLING FROM THE 70S EARLIER IN THE DAY! BEHIND THIS FRONT WE DO NOT
WARM UP MUCH FOR THURSDAY WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE LOW
40S AND EVEN THE 30S FOR SOME. WE ARE ALL BUT CERTAIN COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.
WHAT WE ARE LESS CONFIDENT IN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF EXTREME COLD
NECESSITATING THE ISSUANCE OF AN EXTREME COLD WARNING. HAVE ELECTED
TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN EXTREME COLD WATCH FOR NOW DUE TO THE
MODERATE UNCERTAINTY OF JUST HOW COLD WE MAY END UP GETTING ACROSS
THE AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POSSIBILITY AS MORE MODEL
DATA COMES IN THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. RIGHT NOW
THE TYPICAL COLD AREAS SUCH AS THE HILL COUNTRY AND COUNTIES WEST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR LOOK TO SEE THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THIS TIME FRAME ALSO LOOKS TO BE THE PEAK OF THIS
COLDER AIR MASS FOR US AS TEMPS START TO WARM UP SLIGHTLY COME
FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, LOOKING AT RECENT ENSEMBLE DATA THROWS A BIT OF A
QUESTION MARK AS TO IF WE START WARMING UP EARLIER(FRIDAY) OR A
COUPLE DAYS LATER (SUNDAY)? THE MODELS SEEM TO FAVOR THE COLD AIR
STICKING AROUND LONGER THUS KEEPING SATURDAY COOLER. IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES WE MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON PRECIPITATION FOR
FRIDAY ESPECIALLY IF THE PRECIP COMES IN EARLIER AS SOME MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING. RIGHT NOW HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP OUT THE MENTION OF WINTRY
PRECIP AND ELECTED TO GO AS ALL RAIN FOR THE TIME BEING. I'M NOT
CONVINCED THAT THE PRECIP WILL ENTER OUR AREA SO EARLY IN THE
MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, I WOULD ALSO LIKE TO SEE MORE MODEL RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AND LASTLY THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT SO THINGS WILL
LIKELY CHANGE. REGARDLESS OF THIS FACT, OUR HIGHS SATURDAY MAY STILL
REMAIN IN THE 40S IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE WITH THE WARMER AIR NOT
ARRIVING UNTIL SUNDAY FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH PASSING HIGH CIRRUS. A LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN DOES TAKE PLACE MONDAY NIGHT, WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS DURING THAT TIME. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE INCLUDED IN THE NEXT TAF FORECAST (06Z) FOR AUS AND SAT.
OTHERWISE, NORTHEAST WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING, AND BECOMING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AT
DRT LATE THIS EVENING. A SE WIND AROUND 10-15 KT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE AT DRT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 32 62 51 71 / 0 0 0 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 29 62 50 72 / 0 0 0 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 31 64 51 74 / 0 0 0 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 29 62 50 69 / 0 0 0 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 37 68 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 30 61 49 70 / 0 0 0 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 31 66 50 75 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 29 63 51 72 / 0 0 0 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 29 63 52 70 / 0 0 0 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 33 64 52 73 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 33 66 53 74 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...27
LONG-TERM...CJM
AVIATION...76
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