032
FXUS64 KEWX 170515
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1115 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIDESPREAD NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
CLEAR SKIES AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WIND ARE KEEPING CONDITIONS MUCH
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WIND WILL RELAX
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH MAINLY
LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND
30S TONIGHT WITH A MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS SEEING TEMPERATURES AT OR
BELOW 32 DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST MONDAY RETURNING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE AREA. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TOMORROW, BUT WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY COOL IN THE LOW 60S AND LOW
70S. INCREASING CLOUD COVER MONDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES
WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARMTH CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS IN MUCH
COLDER AIR TO END THE WEEK, COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE
LIKELY(70-80%) AND EXTREME COLD WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.
- SLIGHT CHANCE (20-30%) OF A COLD RAIN LATE TUESDAY FOR THE COASTAL
PLAINS OTHERWISE DRY FOR MOST WITH NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ON FRIDAY.
IT'L BE QUITE WARM WITH 70S LIKELY ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT IS WHEN
THE SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR US BEGINS AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS OUR AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
COLDER RAIN(20-30%) FOR AREAS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS. RECENT GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHY AWAY FROM WINTRY PRECIP LET ALONE MUCH RAIN
FALLING AT ALL WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING ACROSS EAST TX.
STILL DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF POPS GOING IN THE FORECAST IN
CASE THE MODELS DECIDE TO SHOWCASE THE PRECIP FORMING FURTHER WEST
ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S AREA-WIDE BEHIND THIS
FRONT. HOWEVER, THE WIND CHILL OR FEELS LIKE TEMPS DUE TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FEEL MORE LIKE IN THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS.
THIS WILL BE MADE TO FEEL EVEN COLDER AS TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE
FALLING FROM THE 70S EARLIER IN THE DAY! BEHIND THIS FRONT WE DO NOT
WARM UP MUCH FOR THURSDAY WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE LOW
40S AND EVEN THE 30S FOR SOME. WE ARE ALL BUT CERTAIN COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.
WHAT WE ARE LESS CONFIDENT IN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF EXTREME COLD
NECESSITATING THE ISSUANCE OF AN EXTREME COLD WARNING. HAVE ELECTED
TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN EXTREME COLD WATCH FOR NOW DUE TO THE
MODERATE UNCERTAINTY OF JUST HOW COLD WE MAY END UP GETTING ACROSS
THE AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POSSIBILITY AS MORE MODEL
DATA COMES IN THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. RIGHT NOW
THE TYPICAL COLD AREAS SUCH AS THE HILL COUNTRY AND COUNTIES WEST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR LOOK TO SEE THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THIS TIME FRAME ALSO LOOKS TO BE THE PEAK OF THIS
COLDER AIR MASS FOR US AS TEMPS START TO WARM UP SLIGHTLY COME
FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, LOOKING AT RECENT ENSEMBLE DATA THROWS A BIT OF A
QUESTION MARK AS TO IF WE START WARMING UP EARLIER(FRIDAY) OR A
COUPLE DAYS LATER (SUNDAY)? THE MODELS SEEM TO FAVOR THE COLD AIR
STICKING AROUND LONGER THUS KEEPING SATURDAY COOLER. IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES WE MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON PRECIPITATION FOR
FRIDAY ESPECIALLY IF THE PRECIP COMES IN EARLIER AS SOME MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING. RIGHT NOW HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP OUT THE MENTION OF WINTRY
PRECIP AND ELECTED TO GO AS ALL RAIN FOR THE TIME BEING. I'M NOT
CONVINCED THAT THE PRECIP WILL ENTER OUR AREA SO EARLY IN THE
MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, I WOULD ALSO LIKE TO SEE MORE MODEL RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AND LASTLY THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT SO THINGS WILL
LIKELY CHANGE. REGARDLESS OF THIS FACT, OUR HIGHS SATURDAY MAY STILL
REMAIN IN THE 40S IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE WITH THE WARMER AIR NOT
ARRIVING UNTIL SUNDAY FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH PASSING HIGH CIRRUS. A LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TAKES PLACE MONDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS DURING THAT TIME. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
FORECAST INITIALLY TO DEVELOP AROUND 06Z ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND
I-35 CORRIDOR, EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND
LOWERING INTO IFR OVERNIGHT, AND LIFR TUESDAY MORNING AS AREAS OF BR
AND DZ DEVELOP. OTHERWISE, NE TO E WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT OVERNIGHT,
EXCEPT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WHERE SE WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED. A SE WIND
AROUND 10-15 KT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY 18Z, WITH GUSTS
20-25 KT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AT DRT IN THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 33 61 51 65 / 0 0 10 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 30 62 50 65 / 0 0 10 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 32 63 51 69 / 0 0 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 30 61 50 66 / 0 0 0 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 38 67 50 80 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 30 61 49 65 / 0 0 10 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 31 65 50 73 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 30 62 50 67 / 0 0 10 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 30 62 50 67 / 0 0 10 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 33 63 52 71 / 0 0 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 34 65 53 72 / 0 0 10 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...27
LONG-TERM...CJM
AVIATION...76
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page