123
FXUS64 KEWX 170613
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1213 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- COOL AND DRY TODAY
- FOG AND PATCHY DRIZZLE DEVELOPING TUESDAY MORNING AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS EAST OF I-35 TUESDAY AFTERNOON
- STRONG, ARCTIC COLD FRONT ENTERS THE HILL COUNTRY BY EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING
A COLD START THIS MORNING, WITH LOWS FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HIGH CIRRUS IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS RESUME TODAY, GUSTY
AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY AND NORTHERN I-35 CORRIDOR, TO MID TO UPPER 60S RIO GRANDE,
SOUTHERN I-35 CORRIDOR, AND COASTAL PLAINS.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY INCREASES LATE THIS EVENING LEADING TO
LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR,
THEN EXPANDING IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DEW
POINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S TODAY MODIFY BACK INTO THE 50S OVERNIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. FOG AND PATCHY DRIZZLE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INDICATED TO DEVELOP BY HREF MEMBERS AND
GLOBAL MODELS EAST OF I-35 AND I-37 TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF THE
STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE TRICKY, WITH
A LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE INDICATED ACROSS NEAR AND EAST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR WHERE CLOUD COVER PERSISTS. CURRENTLY THE FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY RANGES FROM MID 60S ACROSS NORTHEAST AREAS
TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. THE STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE ENTERING THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES...
- STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY EVENING
BRINGING A MUCH COLDER AIR THAT STAYS FOR SEVERAL DAYS
- THE MUCH COLDER AIR THAT SPREADS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IS
LIKELY TO TRIGGER COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES OR EXTREME COLD WARNINGS
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS
THE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AROUND 6 PM TO 7
PM CST TUESDAY EVENING. THERE IS A 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
77 AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS SPREADS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS/WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER
20S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY, UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR AND LOWER 30S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. THE STRONG COLD
FRONT PASSAGE COMES WITH STRONG WINDS FROM THE NORTH (10 TO 20 MPH
AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE) MAKING TEMPERATURES FEEL
(WIND CHILL) MUCH COLDER AND WE ARE TALKING ABOUT SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS TO MID 20S FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT IS LIKELY THAT A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING LATER TODAY OR
DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING WEATHER FORECAST PACKAGE. WE CAN EVEN
CONSIDER A EXTREME COLD WARNING IF FUTURE MODEL GUIDANCE COME EVEN
COLDER THAN TONIGHT.
THE COLDER AIRMASS IS IN STORE FOR SEVERAL DAYS WITH WEDNESDAY'S
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S OVER MOST PLACES AND UP TO THE
MID 50S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
CLEAR SKIES TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE IN STORE FOR ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT OVERNIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. PROJECTED LOWS RANGE FROM THE
TEENS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY INCLUDING THE AUSTIN METRO AREA AND
VICINITY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU TO 20S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
LOCAL AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOWER 30S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. THE
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO STAY AROUND THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG
AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 RESULTING IN WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH
THAT SAID, ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY OR EXTREME COLD WARNING OR
A COMBINATION WILL BE LIKELY ISSUED IN NEAR FUTURE WEATHER FORECAST
PACKAGES.
THURSDAY'S HIGHS ONLY TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY WITH 40S ELSEWHERE.
THE WEATHER PATTERN STARTS TO CHANGE ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE LOCAL AREA AND 850MB WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH. THIS CHANGE HELPS OVERNIGHT LOWS ON FRIDAY MORNING TO BE A
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS. HOWEVER, WE STILL
FORECASTING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, LOWER 30S ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND
LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE.
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (20 PERCENT) FOR
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND COASTAL PLAINS AS
TEMPERATURES LIKELY RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 30S. AT THIS TIME, WE
CALLING FOR COLD RAIN, HOWEVER, MONITORING CLOSELY MODEL GUIDANCE
AND TRENDS IN CASE OF FUTURE OUTPUTS TO BE COLDER WHICH BRING THE
WINTRY MIX TOPIC TO THE PICTURE.
ONCE THE EVENING COMES AROUND ON FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES GO DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID 30S. A SURFACE LOW SHOWS UP DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS
KEEPS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF
DEPICTS MORE ACTIVITY OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE LOCAL AREA. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY THIS SETUP FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WINTRY
MIX DURING THAT PERIOD.
FINALLY WARMS UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH ALL PRECIPITATION BEING RAIN. A PACIFIC FRONT COULD PUSH ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH PASSING HIGH CIRRUS. A LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TAKES PLACE MONDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS DURING THAT TIME. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
FORECAST INITIALLY TO DEVELOP AROUND 06Z ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND
I-35 CORRIDOR, EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND
LOWERING INTO IFR OVERNIGHT, AND LIFR TUESDAY MORNING AS AREAS OF BR
AND DZ DEVELOP. OTHERWISE, NE TO E WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT OVERNIGHT,
EXCEPT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WHERE SE WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED. A SE WIND
AROUND 10-15 KT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY 18Z, WITH GUSTS
20-25 KT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AT DRT IN THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 61 51 65 27 / 0 10 20 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 62 50 65 27 / 0 10 20 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 63 51 69 30 / 0 10 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 61 50 66 23 / 0 0 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 67 50 81 33 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 61 49 65 25 / 0 10 20 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 65 50 73 31 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 62 50 67 28 / 0 10 20 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 62 50 67 30 / 0 10 40 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 63 52 71 31 / 0 10 10 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 65 53 72 34 / 0 10 10 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...76
LONG-TERM...17
AVIATION...76
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