051
FXUS64 KEWX 172351
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
551 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- LAST WARM NIGHT FOR THE AREA FOR AWHILE AS VERY COLD AIR ENTERS OUR
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
- LOW CHANCE (20-40%) OF A COLD RAIN FOR NORTHERN I-35 CORRIDOR AND
THE COASTAL PLAINS.
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT OUR LAST WARM NIGHT FOR QUITE SOME TIME AS LOWS
WILL ONLY DROP TO THE 50S AS WE SEE THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO INCREASE AND POOL MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA
TONIGHT AND FOR TOMORROW AS WELL AS DEW POINTS LOOK TO CREEP INTO
THE 60S. THUS THE DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF LOOKS TO TRY TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF THIS MOISTURE BY WRINGING OUT A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN I-35
CORRIDOR AND THE COASTAL PLAINS. HI-RES MODELS SEEM TO CAPTURE THIS
AS WELL WITH STREAMER SHOWERS AND STORMS APPROACHING OUR AREA FROM
THE SOUTHEAST. MOST MODELS HAVE THIS ACTIVITY STARTING AROUND NOON
AND LASTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THEN CLEARING FROM WEST TO
EAST IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. THERE MAY BE A SPOTTY SHOWER OR
TWO FOR AREAS SOUTH ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AS WELL.
REGARDING HIGH TEMPS FOR TUESDAY THEY COULD BE QUITE TRICKY
DEPENDING ON WHEN THE STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT BLASTS INTO OUR AREA.
IF THE FRONT MOVES IN FASTER TEMPS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO GET QUITE AS
WARM. THE OPPOSITE RINGS TRUE IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER. DECIDED TO GO
WITH A BLEND BASED ON RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE WITH MOST HAVING THE
FRONT BARREL THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS RESULTS IN
HIGHS IN THE 60S FROM A LINE RANGING FROM THE HILL COUNTRY TO SAN
MARCUS EASTWARD TO THE COASTAL PLAINS. AREAS SOUTH OF THIS LINE CAN
EXPECT 70S AND EVEN SOME 80S. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO REALLY CRASH THROUGHOUT THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP CONSIDERABLY SUCH
THAT WE DECIDED TO ISSUE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WHICH GOES INTO
AFFECT AT 06Z WEDNESDAY MORE ON THAT IN THE LONG TERM.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 6 AND
20 DEGREES.
- EXTREME COLD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 0
AND 10 DEGREES.
- ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING A BRIEF ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIP TO
THE HILL COUNTRY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING, BUT AT THIS
TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY IMPACTS TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
A SIGNIFICANT COLD SNAP WILL BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY AS AN ARCTIC FRONT
LEAVES MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF
THE WEEK. IT'LL BE QUITE COLD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND 40S
ELSEWHERE. THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS IS QUITE SHALLOW, BUT IT COULD BE
STUBBORN TO GIVE UP MUCH GROUND THROUGH LATE WEEK. ONE OF THE BIGGEST
FACTORS IN WHY IT WILL BE SO COLD IS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION NOT
REALLY LETTING UP UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THOSE WIND CHILLS IN THE 6 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE THAT
FACILITATES THE ISSUANCE OF A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
AS IT STANDS NOW, WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE
SEASON AND WILL LIKELY HOLD THAT DISTINCTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WINTER SEASON. AN EXTREME COLD WATCH IS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NOON THURSDAY FOR WIND
CHILLS AS LOW AS 0 TO 10 DEGREES. THE AREAS THAT WE ARE MOST
CONFIDENT IN TO REACH THE EXTREME COLD CRITERIA WOULD BE THE HILL
COUNTRY, THE EDWARDS PLATEAU, THE I-35 CORRIDOR NORTH OF BEXAR COUNTY
AND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS. ULTIMATELY, A WATCH WAS USED TO
ACCOUNT FOR A BIT OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THOSE 10 DEGREE
WIND CHILLS WILL EXPAND. WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10-20 MPH
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, IT WILL NOT FEEL PLEASANT. FOLLOWING
TYPICAL COLD WEATHER SAFETY WHEN OUTDOORS, SUCH AS WEARING
APPROPRIATE CLOTHING, A HAT, GLOVES, AND COVERING EXPOSED SKIN TO
AVOID HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE. PROTECTING PIPES WILL BE ESSENTIAL
ONCE AGAIN AS TEMPERATURES DIP WELL BELOW FREEZING SEVERAL NIGHTS
THIS WEEK.
TURNING OUR ATTENTION TO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, A COASTAL LOW LOOKS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF LATE FRIDAY AND START TO PROGRESS
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD
AND AROUND THE LOW INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS AND PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN HILL COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME BRIEF FREEZING RAIN MAY
MIX IN OVER THE HILL COUNTRY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE PRECIP MOVES
OUT OF THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL START OUT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK SATURDAY MORNING, BUT SHOULD
GET BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BY THE AFTERNOON.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS PROMISING
FOR A SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP AS THIS SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS GETS THE
BOOT. AS EARLY AS SUNDAY, MOST LOCATIONS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S WITH
SOME 60S EAST, FOLLOWED BY HIGHS ACROSS THE BOARD IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S MONDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 542 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
EVENING SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY TROUBLE FREE WITH ONLY SOME
OCCASIONAL 4000-6000 FT CIGS AMONG THE STRATUS. WITH 50S DEW POINTS
ALREADY RETURNING TO THE COASTAL PRAIRIES THE LOWERING OF CIGS TO
MVFR COULD COME EARLY AT AUS OR AS EARLY AS 05Z. THE CIGS SHOULD
EXPAND GRADUALLY SOUTH AND WEST, BUT SHOULD STILL HAVE TIME TO REACH
DRT BY DAYBREAK. IFR SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONDITIONS, BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME LIFR PREVAILINGS AT ANY OF THE 4 TERMINALS IN THE LATE
MORNING. IN THE LATER UPDATES, SOME DRIZZLE MAY NEED SOME
CONSIDERATION, MAINLY FOR AUS. THE CIGS SHOULD HOLD TO MVFR INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND MAY NEVER BREAK OUT AT AUS. DRT AND SSF SHOW THE BEST
POTENTIAL TO MIX OUT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH SAT STUCK IN
BETWEEN THE 4 SITES. A STRONG FRONT ARRIVES BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z ALONG
I-35 AND THERE WERE EVENTUALLY BE A REINFORCED MVFR CIG.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 52 67 28 40 / 10 30 10 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 52 64 28 40 / 10 30 10 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 52 69 31 44 / 10 20 10 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 50 67 23 37 / 0 10 10 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 50 78 33 51 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 51 66 26 37 / 10 30 10 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 51 71 31 47 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 51 68 29 42 / 10 20 10 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 51 66 31 42 / 10 50 30 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 53 71 31 44 / 10 10 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 53 72 34 46 / 10 10 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT TO NOON CST
WEDNESDAY FOR ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-
COMAL-DE WITT-EDWARDS-FAYETTE-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-
KARNES-KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-
UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-
COMAL-DE WITT-EDWARDS-FAYETTE-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-
KARNES-KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-
UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON.
SHORT-TERM...CJM
LONG-TERM...MMM
AVIATION...18
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