342
FXUS64 KEWX 182034
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
234 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
EVENING.
- STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT.
- AN EXTREME COLD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND COASTAL PLAINS FOR LOW WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT.
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN HILL COUNTRY, I-35
CORRIDOR, AND COASTAL PLAINS FOR WINDS NEAR 25 MPH TONIGHT.
- COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AN EXTREME COLD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU, HILL COUNTRY, AND I-35 CORRIDOR. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS FOR LOW WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST KEEPING
WARM, MOIST AIR OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE
60S TO THE LOWER 70S AND DEWPOINTS FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO THE MIDDLE
60S. THERE IS A SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S. THIS COLD AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE
REGION. IT SHOULD BE DOWN TO I-10/HWY 90 BY AROUND 9PM AND TO OUR
SOUTHERN BORDER BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN TO NORTH AND INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMING 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ACROSS
NEARLY OF THE CWA. STRONG WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE AREA AND WILL BE 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. WE HAVE
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS PART OF THE AREA. THESE WINDS WILL
BRING MUCH COLDER AIR AND COMBINED WITH THE TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD
TO VERY LOW WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES. THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS WILL BE
OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU WHERE WE HAVE ISSUED AN EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR WIND CHILLS
FIVE DEGREES OR LOWER. FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND COASTAL PLAINS
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD AND WIND CHILLS WILL BE 15-20
DEGREES PROMPTING US TO ISSUE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE BRINGING COLD AIR WEDNESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S
IN THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY TO THE MIDDLE 50S IN THE SOUTHERN RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE, BUT WILL BE A LITTLE
LIGHTER BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE COLDER
THAN WEDNESDAY BY AROUND FIVE DEGREES. SOME RECORD LOWS ARE
POSSIBLE. THE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH WINDS OF 15-20 MPH
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FROM NEAR FIVE DEGREES IN THE HILL
COUNTRY TO AROUND 20 IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. WE HAVE ISSUED
ANOTHER EXTREME COLD WARNING AND EXTENDED IT TO THE I-35/HWY 90
CORRIDOR AND A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY SOUTH OF THERE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- BITTERLY COLD START TO THURSDAY WITH EXTREME COLD WARNING AND COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON THURSDAY. VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
- ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME WINTRY MIX OVER THE HILL COUNTRY
AND NORTHERN I-35 CORRIDOR.
- MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COLD BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.
AFTER A START IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR MANY THURSDAY ALONG WITH
WIND CHILLS IN THE 0 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE, EXPECT HIGHS TO ONLY REACH
THE UPPER 30S TO MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE AFTERNOON. IT IS ACTUALLY
EXPECTED TO BE EVEN COLDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS.
ON FRIDAY, A COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND
START TO SLIDE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW, KEEPING OUR SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDDAY SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN TO MIX IN BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY
AND NORTHERN I-35 CORRIDOR. IF ANY WINTRY PRECIP DOES OCCUR, IMPACTS
WOULD LIKELY BE MINIMAL AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING
QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING.
ON SUNDAY, A BIG TIME WARMUP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS WINDS TURN BACK
OUT OF THE SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE
60S AND 70S AND THEN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ARE EXPECTED. SO, IF YOU DON'T LIKE THE COLD,
WE'LL BE BACK TO OUR WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SOONER THAN
LATER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE BRINGING LOW CLOUDS AND SOME LOWER VISIBILITY.
CEILINGS HAVE RISEN TO MVFR IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO AND TO VFR AT
DRT. CEILINGS IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO MAY DROP TO IFR BRIEFLY OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT
AUS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING TURNING THE WINDS TO THE NORTH. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO
15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR UNTIL
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 26 39 20 40 / 10 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 26 40 20 40 / 20 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 28 44 22 43 / 10 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 20 36 16 38 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 31 51 27 49 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 23 37 18 38 / 10 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 28 47 22 45 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 27 42 20 40 / 10 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 28 41 21 41 / 50 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 29 44 23 43 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 31 47 24 44 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY
FOR BANDERA-BLANCO-BURNET-EDWARDS-GILLESPIE-KENDALL-KERR-LLANO-REAL.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-
EDWARDS-GILLESPIE-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LEE-LLANO-
MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY
FOR ATASCOSA-BASTROP-BEXAR-CALDWELL-COMAL-DE WITT-FAYETTE-GONZALES-
GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-MEDINA-TRAVIS-UVALDE-VAL
VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR ATASCOSA-DE WITT-DIMMIT-FAYETTE-FRIO-GONZALES-KARNES-
LAVACA-MAVERICK-WILSON-ZAVALA.
SHORT-TERM...05
LONG-TERM...MMM
AVIATION...05
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