392
FXUS64 KEWX 190052
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
652 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 613 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- PARTS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR NORTH OF SAN MARCOS COULD EXPERIENCE
SOME SPOTTY ICING ON ELEVATED SURFACES BETWEEN 9 PM AND 3 AM.
- ARRIVAL OF GUSTY WINDS COULD APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE
LATE EVENING HOURS.
THIS MAY SOUND ALARMIST, BUT WE CAN'T SPEAK FOR ALL OF THE AREA NOT
FORMING ANY ICE FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS. STRONG WIND GUSTS
ARE HITTING 30 KNOTS ALREADY INTO THE SAN MARCOS AREA, BUT COOLING TO
THE FREEZING LEVEL IS OFFSET WELL TO THE NORTH OVER NORTHERN BURNET
AND LLANO COUNTIES AS OF 6 PM. A LOOK AT AFTERNOON RAINS REVEALS
QUITE A FEW AREAS THAT RECEIVED OVER 1/10 INCH WITH A LOCALLY
IMPRESSIVE TOTAL OF 0.27 NOTED AT BEE CAVE. THESE AMOUNTS ARE
SUFFICIENT TO CREATE MUD PUDDLES ON SOME OF THE POORER QUALITY ROADS
AND INTERSECTIONS, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO A LOW END BLACK ICE
THREAT WHERE EVENING TRAFFIC SPLASHES INTO THEM. MAJOR FREEWAYS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SAFE, AND IT WAS NOTED THAT I-35 WAS PRETREATED AS
FAR SOUTH AS NEW BRAUNFELS.
THE UPDATED FORECAST REFLECTS A BIT MORE WIND, MAINLY TO FILL IN SOME
OF THE GRIDDED DATA POCKETS WHERE OUR POPULATE SCHEMES SHOW
UNREALISTIC LOWER WINDS IN PROTECTED VALLEYS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
EVENING.
- STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT.
- AN EXTREME COLD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND COASTAL PLAINS FOR LOW WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT.
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN HILL COUNTRY, I-35
CORRIDOR, AND COASTAL PLAINS FOR WINDS NEAR 25 MPH TONIGHT.
- COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AN EXTREME COLD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU, HILL COUNTRY, AND I-35 CORRIDOR. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS FOR LOW WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST KEEPING
WARM, MOIST AIR OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE
60S TO THE LOWER 70S AND DEWPOINTS FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO THE MIDDLE
60S. THERE IS A SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S. THIS COLD AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE
REGION. IT SHOULD BE DOWN TO I-10/HWY 90 BY AROUND 9PM AND TO OUR
SOUTHERN BORDER BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN TO NORTH AND INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMING 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ACROSS
NEARLY OF THE CWA. STRONG WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE AREA AND WILL BE 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. WE HAVE
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS PART OF THE AREA. THESE WINDS WILL
BRING MUCH COLDER AIR AND COMBINED WITH THE TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD
TO VERY LOW WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES. THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS WILL BE
OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU WHERE WE HAVE ISSUED AN EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR WIND CHILLS
FIVE DEGREES OR LOWER. FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND COASTAL PLAINS
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD AND WIND CHILLS WILL BE 15-20
DEGREES PROMPTING US TO ISSUE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE BRINGING COLD AIR WEDNESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S
IN THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY TO THE MIDDLE 50S IN THE SOUTHERN RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE, BUT WILL BE A LITTLE
LIGHTER BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE COLDER
THAN WEDNESDAY BY AROUND FIVE DEGREES. SOME RECORD LOWS ARE
POSSIBLE. THE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH WINDS OF 15-20 MPH
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FROM NEAR FIVE DEGREES IN THE HILL
COUNTRY TO AROUND 20 IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. WE HAVE ISSUED
ANOTHER EXTREME COLD WARNING AND EXTENDED IT TO THE I-35/HWY 90
CORRIDOR AND A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY SOUTH OF THERE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- BITTERLY COLD START TO THURSDAY WITH EXTREME COLD WARNING AND COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON THURSDAY. VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
- ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME WINTRY MIX OVER THE HILL COUNTRY
AND NORTHERN I-35 CORRIDOR.
- MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COLD BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.
AFTER A START IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR MANY THURSDAY ALONG WITH
WIND CHILLS IN THE 0 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE, EXPECT HIGHS TO ONLY REACH
THE UPPER 30S TO MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE AFTERNOON. IT IS ACTUALLY
EXPECTED TO BE EVEN COLDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS.
ON FRIDAY, A COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND
START TO SLIDE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW, KEEPING OUR SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDDAY SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN TO MIX IN BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY
AND NORTHERN I-35 CORRIDOR. IF ANY WINTRY PRECIP DOES OCCUR, IMPACTS
WOULD LIKELY BE MINIMAL AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING
QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING.
ON SUNDAY, A BIG TIME WARMUP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS WINDS TURN BACK
OUT OF THE SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE
60S AND 70S AND THEN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ARE EXPECTED. SO, IF YOU DON'T LIKE THE COLD,
WE'LL BE BACK TO OUR WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SOONER THAN
LATER.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
COLD FRONT IS ACCELERATING SOUTH AND IS OVERTAKING AREAS OF RAIN AND
DRIZZLE AROUND AUS. THIS INTERACTION WILL PROBABLY EXTEND THE
POSSIBILITY OF IFR CIGS INTO AROUND 03Z AND AN UPDATE WAS JUST ISSUED
FOR THAT REVISED PLAN. MAINLY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ONCE THE WINDS
GET CRANKED UP FULLY FOR I-35 TERMINALS AND THIS WILL PROBABLY LAST
UNTIL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK. IT'S POSSIBLE THE WINDS COULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO LIFT CIGS ABOVE 3000 FT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, BUT WE
THINK IT SHOULD EXTEND INTO DAYTIME FOR AT LEAST AUS AND SAT. AT SSF
AND DRT, MUCH LOWER CIG IMPACTS ARE DEPICTED BY THE MODELS BUT WE ARE
SHADING TOWARD THE LOWER CIGS FOR A LONGER PERIOD. WITH SHALLOW
ARCTIC AIR, WE MAY NOT BE PESSIMISTIC ENOUGH. THE GUSTS TO AROUND 30
KNOTS COULD BE A CONCERN GOING INTO MID AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 26 39 20 40 / 10 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 26 40 20 40 / 20 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 28 44 22 43 / 10 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 20 36 16 38 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 31 51 27 49 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 23 37 18 38 / 10 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 28 47 22 45 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 27 42 20 40 / 10 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 28 41 21 41 / 50 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 29 44 23 43 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 31 47 24 44 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY
FOR BANDERA-BLANCO-BURNET-EDWARDS-GILLESPIE-KENDALL-KERR-LLANO-REAL.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-
EDWARDS-GILLESPIE-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LEE-LLANO-
MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY
FOR ATASCOSA-BASTROP-BEXAR-CALDWELL-COMAL-DE WITT-FAYETTE-GONZALES-
GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-MEDINA-TRAVIS-UVALDE-VAL
VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR ATASCOSA-DE WITT-DIMMIT-FAYETTE-FRIO-GONZALES-KARNES-
LAVACA-MAVERICK-WILSON-ZAVALA.
SHORT-TERM...18
LONG-TERM...MMM
AVIATION...18
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