884
FXUS64 KEWX 190829
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
229 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- ARCTIC COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS AND HARD FREEZES EXPECTED.
- EXTREME COLD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EDWARDS PLATEAU, HILL COUNTRY,
AND I-35 CORRIDOR. COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
COASTAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THESE ARE IN
EFFECT TODAY THROUGH NOON CST THURSDAY.
- WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN HILL COUNTRY AND
THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH NOON CST TODAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA IN THE SHORT
TERM. THE TIGHTEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING BRINGING THE STRONGEST NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. WE HAVE CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH NOON
CST TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY RELAXES THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT, THEN EVEN FURTHER ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS HAVE
FALLEN FASTER THAN EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE COLDER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST DUE TO CLOUDS
PERSISTING A BIT LONGER TODAY. SOME SPOTS IN THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND
HILL COUNTRY MAY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. AS A RESULT, THE DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILLS CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WE RAN THE ONGOING
EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY
THROUGH NOON CST THURSDAY. THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY
ISSUED FOR THE US 90 CORRIDOR TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH NOON CST
TODAY WAS REPLACED BY THE EXTREME COLD WARNING THROUGH NOON CST
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION, RAN THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL
PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS THROUGH NOON CST THURSDAY.
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU, AND HILL COUNTRY, BELOW 10 DEGREES ALONG THE US 90
CORRIDOR TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR, AND BELOW 15 DEGREES ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF OUR AREA. THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS BE THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR
AND COASTAL PLAINS.
- LOW CHANCES FOR A WINTRY MIX ALONG THE NORTHERN I-35 CORRIDOR AND
HILL COUNTRY SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
- MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.
CLOUDS WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 850MB BECOMES
REESTABLISHED. THIS WILL LESSEN THE AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING
EVEN WITH LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE, BUT ENOUGH OF THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS SHOULD STILL BE IN PLACE FOR LOWS FRIDAY MORNING TO REACH
BELOW FREEZING FOR NEARLY OUR ENTIRE FORECAST REGION, WITH HARD
FREEZES (BELOW 28F) ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR NORTH OF BEXAR COUNTY,
THE HILL COUNTRY, AND EDWARDS PLATEAU.
THICKENING CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP FRIDAY'S HIGHS IN CHECK, REMAINING
IN THE 30S TO LOW-40S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AS THE DAY
CONTINUES, DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RISE AND LOW-LEVEL
PROFILES WILL GRADUALLY SATURATE WITH MOISTURE SIPHONED OFF FROM A
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW OFF THE TEXAS COAST. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE COMBINATION OF MOISTENING BELOW ABOUT 800MB AND
LIFT FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS WITH AN INITIAL SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-
LEVEL JET, AND THUS SATURATES AND PRECIPITATES AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
MORNING. MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS PRECIPITATION ONSET
LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY MORNING. THE KEY QUESTION WILL BE HOW THE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LINES UP WITH NEAR-SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
WHILE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A PROMINENT WARM NOSE
CENTERED NEAR 850MB, A RESIDUAL SUBFREEZING NEAR-SURFACE LAYER COULD
FEASIBLY RESULT IN PROFILES MORE CONDUCIVE TO PRODUCING A WINTRY MIX
OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND NORTHERN I-35
CORRIDOR. OVERALL CHANCES REMAIN LOW DUE TO HOW SENSITIVE THE SETUP
IS TO SMALL CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES, BUT THE OVERALL PICTURE WILL
START TO BECOME CLEARER OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THESE NEAR-SURFACE
DETAILS ENTER THE RANGE OF HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS.
AS THE COASTAL DISTURBANCE TRACKS EAST SATURDAY, SO TOO WILL ITS
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS. POPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR
AND COASTAL PLAINS, LIKELY ALL LIQUID BY THEN, REMAIN 20 TO 40
PERCENT. WITH A DRYING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, CLOUDS MAY START TO
BREAK FARTHER WEST AND ALLOW HIGHS TO APPROACH THE 60S, BUT RAIN AND
CLOUD COVER ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 ARE FORECAST TO KEEP HIGHS COOL
AND IN THE 40S. SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS TO REMAIN COOL
WITH PATCHY FREEZES POSSIBLE, BUT A WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY
BECOME ESTABLISHED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, PAIRING WITH CLEARING SKIES
TO BRING DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE 60S AND 70S. THE WARMING TREND LOOKS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT
SHAKEUPS TO THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN. HIGHS IN THE 80S MAY START TO
ENTER THE PICTURE MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE RIO GRANDE, WITH THE
WARMTH SPREADING EASTWARD TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
OBSERVATIONS AT ALL SITES CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE A COLDER AND
SHALLOWER AIR MASS, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SOME MVFR SKIES FOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT FOR ALL FOUR SITES. DRT, SSF, AND SAT SHOULD REMAIN MVFR
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH DRT PERHAPS BEING THE FIRST TO MIX OUT SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK. THEN WE SHOULD SEE SSF AND SAT LIFT CIGS IN THE LATE
MORNING AND AUS LAST. THE DENSITY OF THE AIR MASS COULD LEAD TO
LATER MIX OUT TIMES THAN IS INDICATED IN THE 06Z UPDATES. A VERY
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRY IS POSSIBLE AT AUS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS, BUT THE DRYNESS/GUSTINESS OF THE AIR AND FINENESS OF
THE ECHOES WOULD SUGGEST NO IMPACTS. NEAR WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL PERSIST OVER I-35 SITES THROUGH AROUND NOON, AND A STEADY NORTH
BREEZE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 36 20 40 27 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 38 20 40 26 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 40 21 43 28 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 33 17 38 24 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 47 24 50 31 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 35 17 38 23 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 44 21 45 29 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 39 20 40 26 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 39 20 41 27 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 41 22 43 30 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 44 23 44 31 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR BANDERA-BASTROP-
BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-EDWARDS-GILLESPIE-GUADALUPE-HAYS-
KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LEE-LLANO-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-UVALDE-VAL VERDE-
WILLIAMSON.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR ATASCOSA-DE WITT-
DIMMIT-FAYETTE-FRIO-GONZALES-KARNES-LAVACA-MAVERICK-WILSON-ZAVALA.
SHORT-TERM...04
LONG-TERM...TRAN
AVIATION...04
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