510
FXUS64 KEWX 200507
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1107 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- ARCTIC COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS AND HARD FREEZES EXPECTED.
- EXTREME COLD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EDWARDS PLATEAU, HILL
COUNTRY, I-35 CORRIDOR, NORTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS, AND COASTAL
PLAINS WHILE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN
RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE PROVEN DIFFICULT TO BREAK EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, AND AS A RESULT, WE'VE OPTED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CLOUD COVER. THIS EFFECTIVELY LEAVES
PLACES FROM BASICALLY THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND NORTHWARD AT OR BELOW
FREEZING FOR THE DAY TODAY. CLOUDS SHOULD FINALLY BREAK AND PUSH
EASTWARD LATE THIS EVENING AND ALLOW FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH SUNSET BUT SHOULD
DECREASE BY LATE EVENING. FACTORING IN WIND SPEEDS IN THE 10-15 MPH
RANGE OVERNIGHT WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE -5 TO 15 DEGREE
RANGE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT, BUT LIKE MENTIONED ABOVE, IT'LL FEEL MUCH COLDER.
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY, IT WON'T BE QUITE AS COLD IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSURE YET
ANOTHER COLD AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S SOUTH. WINDS SHOULD FINALLY START TO LET UP IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY, BUT STILL ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER
30S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION HILL COUNTRY & I-35 LATE
FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY.
- WARMING TREND SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
STUBBORN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ON FRIDAY AND
WITH SURFACE RIDGING INTACT, HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL, RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S. WE WILL ALSO START
TO SEE A RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS A COASTAL TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE. FOR NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN ON THE LOW
SIDE FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WE ARE ALSO KEEPING TABS
ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND THE I-35 CORRIDOR NORTH OF SAN ANTONIO TO
NEAR AUSTIN FROM LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
ACTING TO KEEP CHANCES UNFAVORABLE ARE THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER REMAINING
FAIRLY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. IN ADDITION, THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN LOOKS A LITTLE STRONGER TOWARD THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR AS OF THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THERE MAY
VERY WELL BE ENOUGH COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE SITUATION AND AWAIT FOR THE HI-RES MODELS TO START COVERING THIS
TIME PERIOD BEFORE MAKING TOO MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.
WE SHOULD SEE ENOUGH MODIFICATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR TO KEEP
THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AS ALL LIQUID ON SATURDAY AS HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOSTLY BE
EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY AS CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST. EXPECT WARMER HIGHS WITH LOWER 70S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TO THE
UPPER 50S ALONG HIGHWAY 77.
DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND TAKES OVER FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. HIGHS RETURN TO THE 70S AND 80S ALONG
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
EVENING WINDS HAVE SETTLED FOR THE MOST PART BUT A FEW RANDOM GUSTS
TO 20 KNOTS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. A ROUND OF
MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTH OVER I-35. THE RETURN TO VFR AT AUS
SHOULD OCCUR NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER THE VALID PERIOD BEGINS, AND THEN
SAT/SSF SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENTS BY AROUND 08Z. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
VFR FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 18 39 26 38 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 15 39 26 38 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 20 42 28 39 / 0 0 0 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 16 37 23 38 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 24 48 31 48 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 17 37 24 37 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 19 45 29 41 / 0 0 0 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 18 40 26 38 / 0 0 0 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 19 40 28 40 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 20 42 29 38 / 0 0 0 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 23 43 31 39 / 0 0 0 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR ATASCOSA-BANDERA-
BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DE WITT-EDWARDS-FAYETTE-
GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LAVACA-
LEE-LLANO-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON.
SHORT-TERM...MMM
LONG-TERM...PLATT
AVIATION...18
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page