464
FXUS64 KEWX 202053
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
253 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
HILL COUNTRY AND INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR NEAR AND NORTH OF SAN
ANTONIO.
AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS EXPANDING NORTHWARD
AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO PEAK
IN THE LOWER 30S TO NEAR 40 ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. CLOUD COVER WILL
REMAIN EXPANSIVE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE. IT WILL BE COLD AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM NEAR 20 IN THE HILL COUNTRY TO NEAR FREEZING ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE. WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND SPEEDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH,
WIND CHILLS WILL DROP LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WE
EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER COLD DAY ON FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 30S, WITH SOME
LOWER TO MID 40S POSSIBLE NEAR THE RIO GRANDE. WE'VE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE DEVELOPING NEAR THE
COASTAL PLAINS.
THE LOW-LEVELS BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOISTEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A COASTAL
LOW/TROUGH STRENGTHENS NEAR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. THE
MAIN CONCERN FROM FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR NEAR AND
NORTH OF SAN ANTONIO. TEMPERATURES AND CERTAINLY WET-BULB
TEMPERATURES OVER THE MENTIONED REGION WILL LIKELY BE COLD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A CONCERN. WHILE SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME HIGHER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, SOME ARE SHOWING CONSIDERABLY LESS. IT WILL
TAKE SOME TIME TO MOISTEN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND WE HAVE ACCOUNTED
FOR THIS IN THE LATEST FORECAST. TYPICALLY, WE DON'T SEE MUCH ICE
ACCUMULATION WITH LOW HOURLY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, IF
FREEZING DRIZZLE IS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE, ICING AMOUNTS
WOULD TREND A LITTLE HIGHER. BASED ON THE LATEST DATA, WE DID OPT TO
INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLIGHTLY, BUT HAVE STILL KEPT OVERALL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT OR BELOW 0.10". AS FAR AS ICING AMOUNTS,
MOST TOTALS WILL BE KEPT IN THE 0.01-0.05" RANGE, WITH SOME SPOTS
APPROACHING 0.10". AGAIN, THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR ICING IS
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR NEAR AND NORTH OF
SAN ANTONIO FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS OF NOW, ANY
IMPACTS WOULD LIKELY BE FOCUSED ON ELEVATED ROADWAYS, INCLUDING
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE TRANSITIONS TO ALL RAIN MID-TO LATE SATURDAY
MORNING.
- SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
ON SATURDAY, ANY WINTRY PRECIP ONGOING SHOULD BE SWITCHING OVER TO
ALL RAIN BY MID-MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK AT ALL LOCATIONS IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. DESPITE
WARMING BACK ABOVE FREEZING, IT WON'T WARM MUCH ABOVE THAT WITH A
COLD RAIN EXPECTED MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY MAINLY FROM THE HILL
COUNTRY AND POINTS EASTWARD. SOME THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE. CLOUDS
SHOULD FINALLY START TO BREAK AND CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S OUT WEST, AND UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S EAST WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON.
WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH SUBTLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN A MAJOR WARMING TREND AS SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY-WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A TREND IN GLOBAL GUIDANCE
TO SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY, AND THIS
MAKES SENSE GIVEN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A RATHER PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN. AT THIS DISTANCE, THIS FRONT DOESN'T LOOK NEARLY AS STRONG
AS OUR MOST RECENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY DIPPING
SOME 10-15 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD FROM THE 70S AND 80S TO THE 60S
AND 70S. BEYOND THAT, THINGS LOOK RATHER BENIGN FOR THE FINAL DAYS
OF FEBRUARY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH
AND EAST INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT, THEN TREND DOWN INTO UPPER END MVFR AROUND SUNRISE AT DRT TO
THE MID-MORNING HOURS ALONG I-35. WINDS REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST
ALONG I-35, WITH SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS RETURNING TO DRT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 26 36 32 43 / 0 0 20 40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 25 37 31 43 / 0 0 20 50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 27 37 31 44 / 0 0 20 50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 21 35 29 43 / 0 0 10 30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 30 46 36 53 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 23 36 31 43 / 0 0 10 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 28 38 32 47 / 0 0 20 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 26 36 31 43 / 0 0 20 50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 26 38 32 45 / 0 0 10 50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 28 37 32 43 / 0 0 20 50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 30 38 33 44 / 0 0 20 50
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DE WITT-
EDWARDS-FAYETTE-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-KENDALL-
KERR-KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-UVALDE-VAL VERDE-
WILLIAMSON-WILSON.
SHORT-TERM...PLATT
LONG-TERM...MMM
AVIATION...PLATT
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