123
FXUS64 KEWX 211128
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
528 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH 9 AM THIS MORNING.
- LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING FOR
PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR NEAR AND
NORTH OF SAN ANTONIO.
OVERCAST SKIES ARE SEEN ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW
20S IN THE HILL COUNTRY TO AROUND 32 DEGREES NEAR THE RIO GRANDE
BEFORE SUNRISE. WINDS STAY ELEVATED FROM AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH THIS
MORNING, BRINGING WIND CHILLS IN THE 10 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE FOR MOST
OF THE AREA WITH THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUING THROUGH 9 AM.
BESIDES VAL VERDE COUNTY, CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY AS
MOISTURE INCREASES DUE TO A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH WHICH MOVES UP
THE TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. ANOTHER COLD DAY IS
IN STORE WITH HIGHS ONLY BUDGING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S FOR MOST
THE AREA WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE. MODELS POINT TO THE AFTERNOON BEING DRY ACROSS THE AREA, BUT
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME DRIZZLE IN THE SOUTH DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. POPS INCREASE THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUILDS
FURTHER INLAND WITH THE MAIN CONCERN OF THE PERIOD BEING CHANCES FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WERE MADE IN THE FORECAST FOR FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR THIS MAINLY THE HILL COUNTRY INTO PORTIONS OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR NEAR AND NORTH OF SAN ANTONIO. THE LATEST HREF CONTINUES TO
GIVE GOOD PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 0.01 INCHES FOR FREEZING RAIN
BUT DROPS OFF SIGNIFICANTLY FOR AMOUNTS OVER 0.05 INCHES. THIS
CORROBORATES MOST HI-RES GUIDANCE WHICH PRODUCE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
FREEZING PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OUR AREA. CONFIDENCE IS STILL
LOW FOR THE ONSET/EXACT LOCATIONS OF THIS GIVEN THE PATCHY AND LIGHT
NATURE OF ANY PRECIPITATION, AND HAVE HELD OFF ON A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. IMPACTS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WOULD MAINLY BE
LIGHT ICING ON SURFACES AND ELEVATED ROADWAYS SUCH AS BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES.
BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING TO ABOVE
FREEZING ENDING ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN THREAT. RAIN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35, BUT AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, BUT
STILL COLD IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S WITH OVERCAST SKIES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
- WARMING TREND SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH DRY WEATHER.
NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE DROP IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CONTINUES, WITH LOWS FAIRLY UNIFORM IN
THE UPPER 30S. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING OVER
THE COASTAL PLAINS AND I-35 CORRIDOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS A COASTAL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVES EAST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. MARGINAL PWATS ON THE
ORDER OF 1-INCH AND LACKLUSTER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL KEEP MOST
PRECIPITATION TOTALS LIGHT, THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME
INTENSIFICATION OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 77 AREA LATER IN THE MORNING
WITH INCREASED LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THE POSSIBLE
AVAILABILITY OF MODEST MUCAPE (A FEW HUNDRED J/KG). IN GENERAL,
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE WEEKEND IN TOTALITY LOOK TO BE ABOUT 0.1
TO 0.25 INCHES ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR, WITH 0.5-INCH TOTALS AND
PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED AREAS EXCEEDING 1-INCH POSSIBLE OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS.
THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE PAST OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON,
RESULTING IN THE ESTABLISHMENT OF PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN
THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVELS AS THE WEATHER PATTERN SHIFTS TO A MID-
LEVEL RIDGING REGIME. THE PASSAGE OF AN ELEVATED FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL MARK THE ARRIVAL OF A DRY AND WARM AIRMASS THAT LOOKS
TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR OUT CLOUDS WEST TO EAST SUNDAY. THE DAY'S HIGHS WILL LIKELY
REFLECT THIS CLEARING WITH UPPER-50S AND LOW-60S ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR AND COASTAL PLAINS AND LOW-70S OVER THE RIO GRANDE.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A WARM AND
BENIGN START TO THE WORKWEEK. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK QUITE SIMILAR
WITH THE PATTERN IN PLACE. HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE 70S AND 80S EACH
DAY, WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS APPROACHING
90. LOWS LOOK TO STEADILY INCREASE TO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. ON
WEDNESDAY, THE CORE OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET SLIDES INTO OUR AREA,
LEADING TO SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THIS MAY TEMPER WARMTH BY A
FEW DEGREES, BUT HIGHS SHOULD STILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 80F. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY. AS THE SOURCE REGION FOR THE ENSUING
AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN, THE TEMPERATURE DROP LIKELY
WON'T BE VERY SIGNIFICANT, BUT COULD BE ENOUGH TO SET UP MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
CEILINGS RANGE BETWEEN 2-4KFT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH LOW
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING. MVFR
CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT SAT/SSF FROM 17-20Z AND THEN AGAIN AFTER
22-23Z. CEILINGS LOWER AT AUS/DRT LATER IN THE EVENING.
NORTHEASTERLY WIND WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW 12 KNOTS AT I-35
TERMINALS WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AT DRT. LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE
ARE POSSIBLE AT SAT/SSF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR
LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 36 31 43 38 / 0 20 30 50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 37 31 43 37 / 0 20 30 50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 37 31 44 38 / 10 20 40 50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 35 29 44 37 / 0 20 10 30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 46 35 53 38 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 36 30 44 38 / 0 20 20 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 38 32 47 38 / 0 20 30 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 36 30 43 36 / 10 20 40 50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 38 32 44 38 / 0 10 40 70
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 37 32 43 39 / 10 20 40 40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 37 33 44 39 / 10 20 50 40
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ATASCOSA-
BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DE WITT-EDWARDS-
FAYETTE-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-KENDALL-KERR-
KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-UVALDE-VAL VERDE-
WILLIAMSON-WILSON.
SHORT-TERM...27
LONG-TERM...TRAN
AVIATION...27
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