941
FXUS64 KEWX 212327
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
527 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 9AM
SATURDAY FOR BEXAR, COMAL, HAYS, CALDWELL, GUADALUPE, WILSON, AND
GONZALES COUNTIES FOR FREEZING RAIN.
- ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO 1/10TH OF AN
INCH, PARTICULARLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES, BRIDGES, AND OVERPASSES.
- TEMPERATURES WARM BACK ABOVE FREEZING AND STAY ABOVE FREEZING AFTER
MID-MORNING SATURDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.
LATEST REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS EXPANSIVE STRATUS AND LOW
CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. LIGHT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS AND A SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS REMAIN IN PLACE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HREF GUIDANCE CAME IN WITH AN AGGRESSIVE
APPROACH TO FREEZING RAIN ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA. WITH
REGARD TO IMPACTS OF ACCUMULATIONS, PARTICULARLY ON ELEVATED SURFACE,
BRIDGES, AND OVERPASSES, AND THE POTENTIAL TO IMPACT TRAVEL LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE COUNTIES MENTIONED ABOVE FOR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS. THE NBM AND THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE AREN'T HANDLING THIS
EVENT WELL AT ALL, SO RELIANCE ON MESOSCALE FEATURES AND NOWCASTING
HAVE BECOME PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT AT THIS DISTANCE. IN ANY MATTER,
ONCE WE GET THROUGH MID-MORNING, TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE
FREEZING AT ALL LOCATIONS, WITH A COLD RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING SATURDAY. RAIN SHOULD
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AND MOSTLY BE OUT OF OUR CWA BY SUNDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY
NIGHT, SO ANY REFREEZING OR ADDITIONAL FREEZING RAIN IS UNLIKELY AT
THIS TIME.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARMING TREND BEGINS SUNDAY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
DEVELOPING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT,
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENDING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES
SUNDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS THEN PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
BY WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 80S
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE, UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR, AND MID 70S COASTAL PLAINS. THERE IS A WEAK FRONT THAT WE
WILL WATCH FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SPREAD IN THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ON THE PUSH BEHIND IT AND
DEGREE OF COOLER AIR. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALSO GENERATING
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ALONG THE FRONT, ALTHOUGH THE
MAJORITY, AND THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST, ARE DRY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 516 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
TERMINALS INITIALLY BEGIN VFR BUT THE I-35 SITES (KAUS, KSAT, AND
KSSF) WILL LOWER INTO MVFR LEVELS WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS BEYOND
SUNSET. KDRT WILL BE MORE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TO LOWER INTO
MVFR LEVELS. FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY FROM THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AT KAUS, KSAT, KSSF AS LOWERING TEMPERATURES AND
MOISTURE ADVANCING NORTHWARD WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR -FZDZ. THE
SAN ANTONIO TERMINALS (KSAT AND KSSF) HAS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
ALONG WITH THE SLIGHTLY LONGER DURATION. BY SOMETIME MID-MORNING ON
SATURDAY, THE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND REMAINING AREA
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME ALL LIQUID. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL
HIGHLIGHT DRIZZLE AND/OR PROB30 GROUPS FOR -SHRA AT KAUS, KSAT, AND
KSSF. KDRT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE CEILINGS
LOWER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE IFR RANGE AT KAUS AND KSAT WITHIN THE
30 HR TAFS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 31 41 37 60 / 10 20 30 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 30 41 36 60 / 20 30 40 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 31 43 37 62 / 30 30 30 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 28 44 37 63 / 10 10 10 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 35 51 38 73 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 29 42 37 62 / 10 20 30 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 33 46 38 67 / 20 20 10 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 30 41 36 60 / 20 30 40 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 31 42 37 56 / 20 50 50 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 31 43 39 64 / 30 30 20 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 32 43 39 64 / 30 30 20 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR BEXAR-CALDWELL-
COMAL-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-WILSON.
SHORT-TERM...MMM
LONG-TERM...76
AVIATION...BRADY
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