834
FXUS64 KEWX 221745
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1145 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
MOST LOCATIONS ARE NOW ABOVE FREEZING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
SPOTTY LOCATIONS WHICH WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING SHORTLY. A TRANSITION
BACK TO LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE HAS OCCURRED AND ANY REMAINING ICE ON
ELEVATED SURFACES SHOULD MELT QUICKLY. WE HAVE ALLOWED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE MORNING AND MIDDAY
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND COASTAL PLAINS, WITH A REDUCTION IN
COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WE HAVE LOWERED
HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR TODAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH 9 AM FOR PORTIONS OF THE HILL
COUNTRY, I-35 CORRIDOR AND COASTAL PLAINS FOR FREEZING RAIN AND
DRIZZLE WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS ON ELEVATED SURFACES, BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES.
- TEMPERATURES WARM BACK ABOVE FREEZING MID-MORNING AND STAY ABOVE FREEZING
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING,
MAINLY FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE HILL
COUNTRY. OVERCAST SKIES ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES RATHER STEADY IN
THE LOW OR MID 30S, WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES BY
SUNRISE. IN MOST AREAS WITH PRECIPITATION, WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY AT THE FREEZING MARK NOW AND WE SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN ICING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN THE NORTH WHERE LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS FALLING, DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE LOW 20S BUT MAY INCREASE AS
LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AND ICING MAY BEGIN CLOSER TO
SUNRISE. TOTAL ICE AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO ONLY BE A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH, WITH ONLY SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS SEEING UP
TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE MAIN IMPACTS REMAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES
WITH SLICK SPOTS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS THROUGH 9 AM FOR THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING AREAWIDE AROUND 9 AM ENDING
THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT WITH A COLD, LIGHT RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH
THE DAY MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WARMER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY,
BUT STILL COLD FOR MOST IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S UNDER CLOUDY SKIES.
A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES OVER CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
SHIFTING A COASTAL TROUGH EAST AND ENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SUNDAY MORNING. A BIG WARM-UP IS SEEN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S EAST AND INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S WEST.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
NEXT WEEK WILL BE A DISTINCT CHANGE OF PACE FROM THE CURRENT PERIOD
OF COLD WEATHER. WITH RIDGING ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE WEEKEND'S
TROUGHY ACTIVITY, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER PREVAILING. LOWS MONDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER-30S TO LOW-40S WITH THE COLDEST SPOTS IN RURAL
LOW-LYING AREAS GIVEN THE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. HIGHS
MONDAY RANGE FROM THE LOW-70S OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS TO THE LOW 80S
OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. TUESDAY SHOULD BE A TOUCH WARMER WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE MID-70S TO MID-80S FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOKS WARMER STILL WITH LOWS AROUND 50F.
WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND GRADUALLY INCREASING DEW POINTS OVER THE
REGION, PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP EACH OF THESE MORNINGS
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS.
ON WEDNESDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL US. THIS COULD SET UP A PUSH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, THOUGH THERE IS A
FAIR BIT OF UNCERTAINTY FROM THE SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE REGARDING TIMING
AND THE STRENGTH OF THE COOLER AIR BEHIND IT. WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS LOOK
QUITE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY'S, PROVIDED THAT THE FRONT ARRIVES AFTER
PEAK HEATING. WITH THE SHORTWAVE BEING SO DISTANT AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT BEING MEAGER, THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AND THE
FORECAST DOES NOT INCLUDE RAIN AT THIS TIME. SHOULD THE FRONT MOVE
ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF OUR REGION, TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONABLE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
FZDZ/FZRA HAS ENDED AS TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING. AREAS
OF DZ/-RA ONGOING NEAR AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR, WITH A
REDUCTION IN COVERAGE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR (AUS/SAT)
INTO THE AFTERNOON. IFR CEILINGS ONGOING, EXPECTED TO RISE TO MVFR
FOR MOST LOCATIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CLOSER
TO THE COASTAL PLAINS. CEILINGS ARE THEN FORECAST TO LOWER BACK INTO
IFR CLOSER TO 06Z ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR, AND 09Z-12Z ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE, WITH A LOW CHANCE (20%) OF LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN
SOME SPOTS WITH FOG.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 39 38 62 42 / 40 30 10 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 38 36 62 40 / 50 30 10 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 37 37 63 41 / 60 30 10 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 41 37 65 40 / 10 10 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 49 38 74 42 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 39 37 63 41 / 20 30 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 42 38 69 40 / 30 10 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 37 36 62 40 / 60 30 10 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 37 37 58 39 / 60 50 20 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 39 39 65 43 / 50 20 10 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 39 39 65 42 / 60 20 10 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...76
SHORT-TERM...27
LONG-TERM...TRAN
AVIATION...76
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