632
FXUS64 KEWX 222004
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
204 PM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE
COASTAL PLAINS TONIGHT
- CLEARING WEST TO EAST AND WARMER ON SUNDAY
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS (20-50%) CONTINUE TONIGHT NEAR THE I-35 AND I-37
CORRIDORS INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS AS THE LAST OF THE FORCING IN THE
BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN KERR, GILLESPIE, AND LLANO
COUNTIES, THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
TONIGHT, WITH NO CONCERN FOR FREEZING RAIN LIKE THIS MORNING. FOG IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN SOME AREAS, WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 2-5
MILE VISIBILITY RANGE THAT EXPERIENCE IT. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE A
WINDOW SUNDAY MORNING FOR DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF EDWARDS AND
VAL VERDE COUNTIES.
SHOWERS WILL EXIT EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING, WITH CLEARING
TAKING PLACE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL FINALLY LEAD TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE, WHERE TO CLEARING TAKES PLACE FIRST, TO THE
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE U.S. 77 CORRIDOR IN THE EAST, WHERE CLEARING IS
LAST TO OCCUR. CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE
SHOULD ASSIST WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG FOR SOME AREAS OF THE
COASTAL PLAINS UP THE U.S. 77 CORRIDOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES...
- WARMING INTO THE 70S AND 80S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY,
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTER PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG (CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED SPOTS UNDER
DENSE FOG) ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS ON MONDAY MORNING, SKIES ARE
CLEARING MID TO LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR SUNNY SKIES.
MONDAY'S HIGHS ARE FORECASTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND EVEN
LOWER 80S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECASTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND LINGERING THROUGH MID MORNING
ON TUESDAY.
A COUPLE OF SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DAYS ARE IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO PUSH ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY TO MID 70S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED PER LATEST GFS SOLUTION. THE ECMWF SHOWS SOME LIGHT QPF
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND TO THE WEST OF DEL RIO WHILE
THE LATEST LREF SOLUTION SHOWS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT OF 0.01 OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA. THEREFORE, A DRY FORECAST IS SET FOR THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A QUICK RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS BACK THE
HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
FZDZ/FZRA HAS ENDED AS TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING. AREAS
OF DZ/-RA ONGOING NEAR AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR, WITH A
REDUCTION IN COVERAGE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR (AUS/SAT)
INTO THE AFTERNOON. IFR CEILINGS ONGOING, EXPECTED TO RISE TO MVFR
FOR MOST LOCATIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CLOSER
TO THE COASTAL PLAINS. CEILINGS ARE THEN FORECAST TO LOWER BACK INTO
IFR CLOSER TO 06Z ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR, AND 09Z-12Z ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE, WITH A LOW CHANCE (20%) OF LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN
SOME SPOTS WITH FOG.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
HILL COUNTRY, SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP TO THE TEENS AND LOWER
20S EACH AFTERNOONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 37 64 41 74 / 20 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 34 63 38 73 / 30 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 37 66 40 76 / 20 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 36 66 39 77 / 10 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 36 75 41 84 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 38 64 39 74 / 20 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 34 70 39 77 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 36 64 38 73 / 20 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 36 59 38 70 / 40 10 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 38 67 43 75 / 20 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 37 68 41 75 / 20 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...76
LONG-TERM...17
AVIATION...76
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