783
FXUS64 KEWX 270525
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1225 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 903 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND THIS
TREND LOOK LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM. WE HAVE LOWERED
POPS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HI-RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASE OF POPS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING
- HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
THE COMBINATION OF SEVERAL HEAVY RAIN ROUNDS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS IN STORE FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD (REST OF
TODAY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT). INCREASED GULF MOISTURE AND AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE OVER THE RIO GRANDE TO KEEP MOST
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS UNSTABLE RESULTING IN ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN
THROUGH THURSDAY. STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE A QUICK HALF TO ONE
INCH OF RAINFALL IN A SHORT TIME WINDOW. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY
IN PLACE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE MAINLY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE COASTAL PLAINS. CAN'T RULE OUT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WITH STRONGER STORMS IF THEY DO DEVELOP. THERE MAY BE LULLS OR
PERIODS OF LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN INTENSITY TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
BY THURSDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS
FORECASTED TO PUSH EASTWARD AND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR MOST OF
THE DAY AND EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE FROM 1.6 TO 1.8
INCHES BASED ON SEVERAL HIRES MODELS, SUGGESTING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
HEAVY RAIN. THIS TRANSLATES TO HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING AND ACTION TO MINOR STREAM RIVER FLOODING. IN ADDITION TO
THE HEAVY RAIN, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MOST AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST INTO EAST TEXAS. MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARD LIKELY BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
BEGINS TO PUSH AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING (EARLY IN
THE LONG TERM).
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
LONG TERM...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWERS AND STORMS TAPER OFF FRIDAY.
- LOW CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
WHILE THE DETAILS OF RAIN IN OUR AREA FRIDAY MORNING WILL HINGE ON
HOW THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT IS IMPACTED BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY'S SHOWERS AND STORMS, EXPECT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAINLY BY SUNRISE FRIDAY, WITH SOME ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS
POSSIBLE IN THE REMAINING ACTIVITY. THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE TRAVERSING SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE
DAY, ALLOWING THE AREA OF SYNOPTIC LIFT TO SLIDE EASTWARD OUT OF OUR
AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF OVER THE COURSE
OF THE DAY.
WHILE THE RAIN WILL HAVE PASSED, THE PRESENCE OF BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN US WILL MAINTAIN A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVER OUR AREA, KEEPING THE WARM AND MOIST GULF AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR
MOST. AFTER A SLIGHTLY RAIN-COOLED FRIDAY, EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S AND LOWS IN THE 60S. A
LARGELY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT LOOKS TO HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK WITH THE JET STREAM REMAINING TO OUR NORTH, SO THIS WARMTH DOES
NOT LOOK TO CHANGE CONSIDERABLY. A COMBINATION OF TWO SHORTWAVES
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WILL HELP BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH THE
LEAD SHORTWAVE BRINGING AN INITIAL SURGE OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS
WESTERN COUNTIES SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY THE SECOND SHORTWAVE PUSHING A
MORE DISTINCT FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD MONDAY. MONDAY'S FRONT MAY
RETREAT BACK NORTH TUESDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT. WHILE SYNOPTIC FORCING
FOR ASCENT WON'T BE VERY STRONG, LIMITING THE AREAL EXTENT OF RAIN,
THESE BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY ENCOUNTER SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY WITHIN
THE POOL OF GULF MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA WITH MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES
POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM. THIS COULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS MAINLY DURING THE LATE-AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS IF SURFACE
TEMPERATURES END UP WARMER THAN MODELED.
MONDAY'S FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE TEMPERATURES TOO
SUBSTANTIALLY, THOUGH HIGHS AND LOWS COULD STEP DOWN 5 TO 10 DEGREES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A LOW-LEVEL JET LOOKS TO STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY,
WITH AN ACCOMPANYING INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
CIGS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR OVERNIGHT, THEN IFR AND FINALLY LIFR
ON THURSDAY AS NEW ROUNDS OF RA MOVE OVER OUR AREA. WDLY SCT TSRA ARE
EXPECTED, HOWEVER, TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AT THE SITES. LATER UPDATES
WILL LIKELY INCLUDE MENTION BASED ON RADAR/MODEL TRENDS. EASTERLY
WINDS OF 6 TO 14 KTS WILL PREVAIL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 62 76 64 85 / 90 80 20 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 61 76 63 84 / 90 80 20 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 62 78 64 86 / 90 80 20 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 60 77 63 86 / 80 70 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 63 87 66 92 / 70 10 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 61 75 63 84 / 90 80 20 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 61 77 62 86 / 80 50 10 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 61 76 63 83 / 90 80 20 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 63 76 65 84 / 90 80 30 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 62 76 65 84 / 90 70 20 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 64 78 65 85 / 90 70 10 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR ATASCOSA-DE WITT-GONZALES-
KARNES-LAVACA-WILSON.
SHORT-TERM...04
LONG-TERM...18
AVIATION...04
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