989
FXUS64 KEWX 271240
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
740 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 735 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
ADJUSTED THE POPS AND DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. GREATEST CHANGES
WERE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION WITH AREAL COVERAGE MORE
IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RANGE ON SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- FLOOD WATCH NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS NOW THROUGH 1 PM CDT FRIDAY
- SOME RAINFALL TOTALS NEARING 6+ INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY
AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH PWS RANGING FROM 1.2
INCHES OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU TO 1.7 INCHES NEAR THE COASTAL
PLAINS. THESE VALUES ARE AROUND 200 PERCENT OF AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SONORA STATE
IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO WILL MOVE OVER TEXAS ON FRIDAY. MID LEVEL
IMPULSES OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH PROVIDE FORCING FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, THEN THE RAINS BEGIN TO END FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LONG SKINNY CAPE INDICATING A CONTINUED
POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINS, ESPECIALLY WHERE TRAINING AND/OR SLOW
MOVING CELLS OCCUR. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 6+ INCHES POSSIBLE. THE MOST FAVORED AREA
FOR FLASH FLOODING IS NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS WHERE WE HAVE EXTENDED
THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 1 PM CDT ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE MOST LIKELY
FLOOD TYPES WILL BE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. THE HEAVIEST
RAINS SO FAR HAVE RESULTED IN BRIEF SMALL RISES ON RIVERS. WITH
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN, LARGER RISES WITH A LONGER
DURATION MAY BECOME POSSIBLE. THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY OF STRONG
WIND GUSTS AS THE STORMS COLLAPSE. THE THICK CLOUD COVER AND AREAS
OF RAIN KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE TODAY. AS CLOUDS
AND RAIN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST, HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR
AVERAGE ON FRIDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
THE DEPARTURE OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW LEAVES A FLAT ZONAL
PATTERN OVER TX FOR THE WEEKEND. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AND RAIN SOAKED
SOILS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME FOG OVER MOST COUNTIES FOR SATURDAY
MORNING. WARMER TEMPS RETURN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE MOISTURE
IN THE GROUND OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL PROBABLY KNOCK
OFF 2 TO 6 DEGREES OF HEATING VERSUS WHAT WESTERN COUNTIES WILL SEE.
WARM AND HUMID DAYS WILL CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
PATTERN ALOFT REMAINS FLAT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE AREA MONDAY MORNING, BUT ONLY LOOKS TO LOWER
TEMPS AND DEWPOINT BY A FEW DEGREES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
CIGS LOWER TO IFR MOST AREAS THIS MORNING, THEN LIFR THIS AFTERNOON
AS AREAS OF SHRA BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG WITH REDUCTIONS TO
VSBY. TSRA ARE ALSO EXPECTED, HOWEVER THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON ANY
IMPACTS TO THE SITES. LATER FORECASTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO ADD
MENTION TO ONE OR MORE SITES AS RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS BECOME
CERTAIN. EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 12 KTS WILL PREVAIL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 68 61 73 64 / 80 90 100 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 68 62 74 63 / 80 90 100 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 69 62 76 64 / 80 90 100 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 67 59 73 63 / 70 90 80 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 73 63 84 66 / 60 70 20 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 69 61 73 63 / 80 90 90 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 68 61 77 62 / 60 80 70 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 67 61 74 63 / 80 90 100 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 69 63 73 65 / 90 90 90 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 68 62 75 65 / 70 90 100 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 69 63 76 65 / 70 90 90 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ATASCOSA-DE WITT-GONZALES-
KARNES-LAVACA-WILSON.
SHORT-TERM...BRADY
LONG-TERM...18
AVIATION...04
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