141
FXUS64 KEWX 271728
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1228 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 735 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
ADJUSTED THE POPS AND DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. GREATEST CHANGES
WERE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION WITH AREAL COVERAGE MORE
IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RANGE ON SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- FLOOD WATCH NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS NOW THROUGH 1 PM CDT FRIDAY
- SOME RAINFALL TOTALS NEARING 6+ INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY
AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH PWS RANGING FROM 1.2
INCHES OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU TO 1.7 INCHES NEAR THE COASTAL
PLAINS. THESE VALUES ARE AROUND 200 PERCENT OF AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SONORA STATE
IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO WILL MOVE OVER TEXAS ON FRIDAY. MID LEVEL
IMPULSES OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH PROVIDE FORCING FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, THEN THE RAINS BEGIN TO END FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LONG SKINNY CAPE INDICATING A CONTINUED
POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINS, ESPECIALLY WHERE TRAINING AND/OR SLOW
MOVING CELLS OCCUR. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 6+ INCHES POSSIBLE. THE MOST FAVORED AREA
FOR FLASH FLOODING IS NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS WHERE WE HAVE EXTENDED
THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 1 PM CDT ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE MOST LIKELY
FLOOD TYPES WILL BE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. THE HEAVIEST
RAINS SO FAR HAVE RESULTED IN BRIEF SMALL RISES ON RIVERS. WITH
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN, LARGER RISES WITH A LONGER
DURATION MAY BECOME POSSIBLE. THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY OF STRONG
WIND GUSTS AS THE STORMS COLLAPSE. THE THICK CLOUD COVER AND AREAS
OF RAIN KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE TODAY. AS CLOUDS
AND RAIN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST, HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR
AVERAGE ON FRIDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
THE DEPARTURE OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW LEAVES A FLAT ZONAL
PATTERN OVER TX FOR THE WEEKEND. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AND RAIN SOAKED
SOILS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME FOG OVER MOST COUNTIES FOR SATURDAY
MORNING. WARMER TEMPS RETURN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE MOISTURE
IN THE GROUND OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL PROBABLY KNOCK
OFF 2 TO 6 DEGREES OF HEATING VERSUS WHAT WESTERN COUNTIES WILL SEE.
WARM AND HUMID DAYS WILL CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
PATTERN ALOFT REMAINS FLAT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE AREA MONDAY MORNING, BUT ONLY LOOKS TO LOWER
TEMPS AND DEWPOINT BY A FEW DEGREES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
CEILINGS RANGING FROM MVFR TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HAVE ALSO
ADDED A PROB30 GROUP FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
ACROSS THE I-35 TAF SITES FOR WHEN GUIDANCE INDICATES INCREASED
PROBABILITY FOR A POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. FOR KDRT,
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TRENDS LATER IN THE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A PROB30 GROUP FOR THAT PERIOD AT THAT SITE AS
WELL. WITHIN THE PRECIPITATION, VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
REDUCED INTO THE 2 TO 6 MILE RANGE AS WELL. EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY AND
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND OR BELOW 10 KNOTS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED BUT DIRECTIONS AT TIMES COULD TREND VARIABLE, ESPECIALLY
WITHIN ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN
AVERAGE FOR PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF ANY HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 61 74 64 85 / 70 70 20 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 61 74 62 84 / 70 70 20 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 62 76 63 86 / 70 70 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 59 74 62 85 / 70 60 10 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 63 84 64 93 / 50 10 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 60 73 63 84 / 70 70 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 61 77 62 85 / 70 50 10 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 61 74 63 84 / 70 70 20 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 62 75 64 84 / 80 80 20 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 62 76 64 84 / 70 70 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 63 76 64 85 / 70 70 10 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ATASCOSA-DE WITT-GONZALES-
KARNES-LAVACA-WILSON.
SHORT-TERM...BRADY
LONG-TERM...18
AVIATION...BRADY
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