962
FXUS64 KEWX 280859
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
359 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SHORT TERM...
KEY MESSAGES:
- FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KARNES, DE WITT AND LAVACA
COUNTIES.
RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE HEAVIEST RAIN CONCENTRATED OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. WHILE THE HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH QPF OUTPUT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, WE ARE
NOTING SOME GRADUAL REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS REGION.
WITH PLENTY OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND LIFT, SLOW-MOVING CELLS
COULD STILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL PLAINS. SUSPECT THE GREATER CONCERN FOR RUNOFF AND
ADDITIONAL FLOODING WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN KARNES, DE WITT AND
LAVACA COUNTIES. AREA RADARS ARE ALSO ESTIMATING SOME 2 TO 4 INCH
AMOUNTS WITH ISOLATED POCKETS NEAR 5 INCHES HAVE FALLEN OVER THE
MENTIONED AREAS. ACROSS ATASCOSA, WILSON AND GONZALES COUNTIES, THE
CONCERN FOR FLOODING HAS DECREASED AND THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
CANCELLED FOR THESE COUNTIES.
ELSEWHERE, MORNING RADAR RETURNS SHOW CONTINUED ECHOES ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY WHERE LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW PERSISTS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. WHILE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED AS THE DAY PERSISTS, ANY DAYTIME HEATING
THAT IS REALIZED BETWEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS COULD YIELD
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION, MAINLY FROM THE HILL
COUNTRY EASTWARD INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
FOR TONIGHT, ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LINGERS IN OUR
EASTERN AREAS ALONG HIGHWAY 77. SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY OVER WET
GROUND. MORNING CLOUDS SATURDAY WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON AS
HIGHS PEAK IN THE LOWER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRYING OUT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY BEFORE HUMID AND WARM
CONDITIONS RETURN ACROSS THE AREA
- NEXT SHOT OF RAIN POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY(LOW CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME)
WE FINALLY LOOK TO DRY OUT FOR A BIT AS WE REMAIN MILD AND HUMID
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT TRAVERSES
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH DRY AND
SHOULD ONLY KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES. AS THIS FRONT
DEPARTS WE QUICKLY RESUME SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING BACK THE WARM AND
MOIST AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN OVER US FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
LOOKING AT THE BIGGER PICTURE THE JET IS PROGGED TO MOVE VERY FAR
NORTH ALLOWING MOST WEATHER DISTURBANCES TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR
AREA. HOWEVER, THIS CHANGES BY ABOUT WEDNESDAY OR POSSIBLY THURSDAY
AS MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME. SOME GLOBAL
MODELS HINT AT A FRONT TRYING TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN TX BEFORE
EVENTUALLY STALLING AND WASHING OUT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX. OTHERS
HAVE US REMAINING MOSTLY DRY WITH SCATTERED SPRINKLES IF ANYTHING. IT
ALL DEPENDS ON WHEN THE JET BECOMES LESS ZONAL(FLAT) AND MORE
AMPLIFIED. AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WOULD LEAD TO A DEEPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING OUT WEST ALLOWING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
GULF WHEREAS A SHORTWAVE WOULD DROP OUR RAIN CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY AS
IT WOULD COME THROUGH MUCH QUICKER THUS NOT BEING ABLE TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF THE RICH MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA. HOPEFULLY AS WE GET
CLOSER MODELS WILL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON WHEN THIS TRANSITION
WOULD TAKE PLACE. HOWEVER THIS SCENARIO SHAKES OUT WILL DETERMINE IF
AND HOW MUCH RAINFALL WE COULD RECEIVE LATER NEXT WEEK.. SINCE
MODELS ARENT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT AT THE MOMENT, DECIDED TO LEAVE
POPS OUT FOR NOW. AS WE HAVE SEEN WITH THIS LAST SYSTEM MODELS
STRUGGLE QUITE FAR OUT AND THIS TIME IS NO DIFFERENT SO STAY TUNED TO
FUTURE FORECASTS AS THINGS HOPEFULLY BECOME CLEARER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL IN ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE I-35 CORRIDOR OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS WITH MAINLY UPPER END IFR
OR LOW END MVFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME
INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED, BUT THE MORE PERSISTENT
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN CLOSER TO THE COASTAL PLAINS. SOME
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS
BEGIN TO BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST. AT DRT, A SIMILAR PATTERN IS
EXPECTED, BUT WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST HERE AND SHOW A
QUICKER RETURN TO VFR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 64 85 67 / 70 20 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 72 62 84 66 / 70 20 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 73 63 86 66 / 70 10 10 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 62 85 66 / 60 10 0 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 84 64 93 69 / 10 0 0 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 72 63 84 66 / 70 10 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 74 62 85 64 / 50 10 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 72 63 84 65 / 70 20 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 64 84 68 / 80 20 10 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 73 64 84 67 / 70 10 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 73 64 85 67 / 70 10 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ATASCOSA-DE WITT-
GONZALES-KARNES-LAVACA-WILSON.
SHORT-TERM...PLATT
LONG-TERM...CJM
AVIATION...PLATT
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