408
FXUS64 KEWX 281151 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
651 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SHORT TERM...
KEY MESSAGES:
- FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KARNES, DE WITT AND LAVACA
COUNTIES.
RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE HEAVIEST RAIN CONCENTRATED OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. WHILE THE HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH QPF OUTPUT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, WE ARE
NOTING SOME GRADUAL REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS REGION.
WITH PLENTY OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND LIFT, SLOW-MOVING CELLS
COULD STILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL PLAINS. SUSPECT THE GREATER CONCERN FOR RUNOFF AND
ADDITIONAL FLOODING WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN KARNES, DE WITT AND
LAVACA COUNTIES. AREA RADARS ARE ALSO ESTIMATING SOME 2 TO 4 INCH
AMOUNTS WITH ISOLATED POCKETS NEAR 5 INCHES HAVE FALLEN OVER THE
MENTIONED AREAS. ACROSS ATASCOSA, WILSON AND GONZALES COUNTIES, THE
CONCERN FOR FLOODING HAS DECREASED AND THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
CANCELLED FOR THESE COUNTIES.
ELSEWHERE, MORNING RADAR RETURNS SHOW CONTINUED ECHOES ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY WHERE LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW PERSISTS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. WHILE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED AS THE DAY PERSISTS, ANY DAYTIME HEATING
THAT IS REALIZED BETWEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS COULD YIELD
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION, MAINLY FROM THE HILL
COUNTRY EASTWARD INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
FOR TONIGHT, ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LINGERS IN OUR
EASTERN AREAS ALONG HIGHWAY 77. SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY OVER WET
GROUND. MORNING CLOUDS SATURDAY WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON AS
HIGHS PEAK IN THE LOWER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRYING OUT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY BEFORE HUMID AND WARM
CONDITIONS RETURN ACROSS THE AREA
- NEXT SHOT OF RAIN POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY(LOW CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME)
WE FINALLY LOOK TO DRY OUT FOR A BIT AS WE REMAIN MILD AND HUMID
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT TRAVERSES
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH DRY AND
SHOULD ONLY KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES. AS THIS FRONT
DEPARTS WE QUICKLY RESUME SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING BACK THE WARM AND
MOIST AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN OVER US FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
LOOKING AT THE BIGGER PICTURE THE JET IS PROGGED TO MOVE VERY FAR
NORTH ALLOWING MOST WEATHER DISTURBANCES TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR
AREA. HOWEVER, THIS CHANGES BY ABOUT WEDNESDAY OR POSSIBLY THURSDAY
AS MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME. SOME GLOBAL
MODELS HINT AT A FRONT TRYING TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN TX BEFORE
EVENTUALLY STALLING AND WASHING OUT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX. OTHERS
HAVE US REMAINING MOSTLY DRY WITH SCATTERED SPRINKLES IF ANYTHING. IT
ALL DEPENDS ON WHEN THE JET BECOMES LESS ZONAL(FLAT) AND MORE
AMPLIFIED. AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WOULD LEAD TO A DEEPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING OUT WEST ALLOWING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
GULF WHEREAS A SHORTWAVE WOULD DROP OUR RAIN CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY AS
IT WOULD COME THROUGH MUCH QUICKER THUS NOT BEING ABLE TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF THE RICH MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA. HOPEFULLY AS WE GET
CLOSER MODELS WILL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON WHEN THIS TRANSITION
WOULD TAKE PLACE. HOWEVER THIS SCENARIO SHAKES OUT WILL DETERMINE IF
AND HOW MUCH RAINFALL WE COULD RECEIVE LATER NEXT WEEK.. SINCE
MODELS ARENT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT AT THE MOMENT, DECIDED TO LEAVE
POPS OUT FOR NOW. AS WE HAVE SEEN WITH THIS LAST SYSTEM MODELS
STRUGGLE QUITE FAR OUT AND THIS TIME IS NO DIFFERENT SO STAY TUNED TO
FUTURE FORECASTS AS THINGS HOPEFULLY BECOME CLEARER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SOME INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE VISIBILITY.
CIGS HAVE NOT TRENDED AS LOW AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, SO WE DID OPT TO
KEEP IFR OUT OF THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES. CLEARING
FROM WEST TO EAST IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING VFR BACK TO
DRT BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH LATE AFTERNOON FARTHER EAST ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES AFTER
29/06Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 64 84 67 / 70 10 0 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 74 62 84 65 / 80 10 0 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 76 64 86 67 / 70 10 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 74 63 86 66 / 70 10 0 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 85 65 94 68 / 10 0 0 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 73 63 84 65 / 80 10 0 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 77 62 86 64 / 40 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 62 83 65 / 70 10 0 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 74 65 84 68 / 80 20 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 65 84 67 / 60 10 0 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 76 65 85 68 / 60 10 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR DE WITT-KARNES-LAVACA.
SHORT-TERM...PLATT
LONG-TERM...CJM
AVIATION...PLATT
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