870
FXUS64 KEWX 282335
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
635 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGE:
- SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT ALONG THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT.
A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEAST JUST
OUTSIDE OF OUR REGION NEAR THE TEXAS COAST. AS HAS BEEN THE THEME
FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS, THIS SYSTEM IS BLOCKING DEEP MOISTURE
ADVECTION, LOWERING TODAY'S RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR
OUR AREA, THOUGH ENHANCED CONVERGENCE FROM BACKED FLOWS TO ITS NORTH
HAVE AIDED IN BOOSTING SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FOR AREAS EAST OF I-
35 AND I-37. AS SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT SHIFTS EAST, REMAINING
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. THE MID-LEVEL AXIS
OF THE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECENT RAINY PATTERN IS ALREADY
SHIFTING OUT OF OUR AREA, AND CLEARING SKIES ARE QUICKLY SPREADING
EAST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WHERE SKIES ARE
NOW FAIR TO CLEAR SHOULD REACH THE 80S, WITH MORE CLOUD-TEMPERED
HIGHS EASTWARD.
LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT WITH GULF MOISTURE REMAINING LARGELY INTACT
WILL SUPPORT SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY OVER WET
GROUND. CHANCES ARE MORE LIKELY OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND ALONG
THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT NEAR AND WEST OF SAN ANTONIO WHERE RAINFALL
TOTALS WERE HIGHEST. A FEW LIGHT STREAMER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH RESIDUAL ISENTROPIC LIFT, THOUGH DIMINISHING
MOISTURE WILL KEEP ANY ACCUMULATIONS LOW. LOWS HEADING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WILL ONCE AGAIN REMAIN MILD ACROSS OUR AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
ON SATURDAY, A BRIEFLY INTERVENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL ENABLE A
PUSH OF SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT, ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR REGIONWIDE
AGAIN. WITH THE AID OF CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW, THIS WILL HELP
DRIVE HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON BACK INTO THE 80S AND
90S, WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER WETTER GROUNDS. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT AS SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO PROP UP GULF MOISTURE
IN OUR AREA WITH LOWS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.
PATCHY FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO DAWN SUNDAY MAINLY IN SOUTHERN
SECTIONS, THOUGH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS RELATIVE TO SATURDAY SHOULD
LIMIT COVERAGE.
A PACIFIC FRONT AND DRY LINE BEGINS A PUSH INTO OUR AREA EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE ROCKIES OVER
THE CENTRAL US. THE GFS IS THE MOST OPTIMISTIC REGARDING SHOWER AND
STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER, MOST
OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY LIMITED DEVELOPMENT, IF ANY. STEEP LAPSE
RATES ALOFT PROVIDE A LARGE AMOUNT OF CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY, BUT A
STRONG CAP WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE AND SHOULD KEEP SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES LOW.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARMER, ABOVE AVERAGE, TEMPERATURES TO BE COMMON NEXT WEEK
- DRY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SLIM STORM CHANCE DURING SUNDAY
- SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS NORTH-NORTHEAST MID TO LATE WEEK
A DRYLINE ADVANCES EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION INTO AND DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. MODELS ARE INDICATING A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION OVER
THE REGION. THE MORNING COULD SEE A LIGHT STRAY SHOWER UNDERNEATH
THIS CAPPING INVERSION INTO THE HILL COUNTRY BUT DRIES OUT WITH
DIURNAL HEATING. OTHERWISE, CHANCES REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
THUNDERSTORM ARE VERY LOW (5 TO 10%) ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY INTO
OUR NORTHEASTERN MOST COUNTIES AS IT WILL TAKE QUITE A LOT OF
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING FOR A STORM. IF A STORM IS ABLE TO POP WITHIN
THIS CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT, IT COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE. WHILE THE STORM CHANCE LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME, SPC DOES
HIGHLIGHT A LEVEL 1 OF 5 RISK OF A SEVERE STORM SUNDAY WITHIN OUR
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY MOST COUNTIES. THE MUCH GREATER RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON SUNDAY WILL CONCENTRATE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO
VALLEYS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW AROUND IOWA. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY
WILL TREND ABOVE AVERAGE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN THE
COASTAL PLAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S OUT WEST. SOME ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EDWARDS PLATEAU WITH THE
OVERLAP OF LOW HUMIDITY AND MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
A DRY FRONT ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
IT WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A RAIN FREE STRETCH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT UNDER A
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. LOW STRATUS DOES BECOME MORE
PREVALENT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL TREND A
FEW DEGREES WARMER ON TUESDAY THAN ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHTS STAY ON
THE WARM AND HUMID SIDE.
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK STARTS TO SEE THE FLOW ALOFT TREND MORE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY AS A TROUGH STARTS TO GRADUALLY SHAPE UP ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE DRYLINE ALSO RETURNS TO BECOMING MORE OF A
FACTOR IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. PENDING STRENGTH OF THE CAPPING
INVERSION, THERE COULD BE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN OR STORMS ACROSS
OUR NORTH AND NORTHEASTERN MOST REGIONS DAILY FROM THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH EACH EVENING. ELSEWHERE, CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN RAIN
FREE. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S AND 90S WHILE THE OVERNIGHT LOWS STAY WARM AND HUMID IN
THE 60S. AN OCCASIONAL LOCATION ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS MAY
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND A MODEST
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS
LATE TONIGHT, DEVELOPING 04Z-09Z ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS, I-35
CORRIDOR, AND HILL COUNTRY AND 09Z-12Z ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
INITIALLY IFR CEILINGS, HOWEVER MANY LOCATIONS ARE FORECAST TO SEE
LIFR CEILINGS DEVELOP QUICKLY, ALONG WITH LIFR TO IFR VISIBILITY. THE
LOW STRATUS AND FOG IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY ERODE 15Z-18Z SATURDAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 63 82 67 86 / 0 0 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 62 82 65 85 / 0 0 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 63 84 66 87 / 0 0 0 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 62 83 66 88 / 0 0 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 65 90 68 96 / 0 0 10 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 62 82 65 86 / 0 0 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 62 85 65 90 / 0 0 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 62 82 65 86 / 0 0 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 63 82 68 83 / 10 0 0 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 63 84 67 87 / 0 0 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 64 85 68 87 / 0 0 10 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...TRAN
LONG-TERM...BRADY
AVIATION...76
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