158
FXUS64 KEWX 291732
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1232 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING EDWARDS PLATEAU.
- LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON HILL COUNTRY
AND MOST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
POSSIBLE.
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WITH CONTINUED COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS. MOST OF THE FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO SLOWLY ERODE
FROM WEST TO EAST. A GOOD AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S TO LOWER
AND MID 90S. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND OUT WEST ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE. LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BY LATE EVENING
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND GRADUALLY EXPAND WESTWARD INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY, A DRYLINE WILL BE LOCATED
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AS SOME UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST. WHILE CHANCES ARE LOW DUE TO THE STOUT MID-LEVEL
CAPPING INVERSION, AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND
WESTERN HILL COUNTRY. THE MODELS SHOW MOST OF THE CONVECTION LARGELY
REMAINING NORTH OF OUR REGION, BUT AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF A
ROCKSPRINGS TO LLANO LINE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO.
AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON, A PACIFIC FRONT OVERTAKES THE
DRYLINE AND SOME WEAK UPPER LIFT ALONG THE PAC FRONT/DRYLINE MAY AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR THE HILL COUNTRY
AND MOST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK NOW
SHOWS AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A BURNET TO SAN MARCOS TO
HALLETTSVILLE LINE UNDER A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. SHOULD CONVECTION MANAGE TO DEVELOP, HAIL AND HIGH WINDS
WOULD BE THE MAIN RISK WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S TO THE LOW/MID 90S. THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN EAST OF I-35 AS PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER IS ANTICIPATED IN THIS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RESUME TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING FRIDAY.
STARTING OFF THE LONG TERM A DRY PACIFIC FRONT SHOULD BE APPROACHING
OR AT THE VERY LEAST MOVING OVER OUR AREA VERY LATE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ALMOST ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE THIS
FRONT COMING THROUGH DRY AS THERE WILL STILL BE A PRETTY STRONG CAP
IN PLACE. THE MAIN THING WE CAN EXPECT AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH IS
"COOLER" TEMPERATURES (70S EAST, 80S/90S WEST) FOR MONDAY AS
NORTHERLY FLOW RESUMES BRINGING IN DRIER LESS HUMID AIR ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS IS SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BEGINS IN EARNEST COME TUESDAY AS THIS FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES RESPOND BY REBOUNDING BACK
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AS THE JET SLIDES WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA.
EVENTUALLY THE JET PINCHES OFF SENDING A TROUGH DOWN OUT OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY GLOBAL MODELS STILL
ARENT IN GREAT AGREEMENT REGARDING WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER,
MOST HAVE CAUGHT ON TO THE IDEA THAT A DEEP WESTERN TROUGH WILL FORM
AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER COME FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM UNTIL THEN WITH 90S LIKELY BOTH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY BEFORE OUR NEXT GOOD
SHOT OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE. LOOKING OUT EVEN FURTHER
THERE A HINTS THAT NEXT WEEKEND COULD BE A WET ONE AS A FRONT LOOKS
TO STICK AROUND JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
MVFR CEILINGS IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS
MORNING CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT
SHOULD SEE MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS RETURN ACROSS THE REGION WITH
POSSIBLE BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS AT KSAT AROUND SUNRISE. THE CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT ENTERING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A LIGHT VARIABLE TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A DRYLINE. THE DRYLINE WILL ADVANCE ACROSS
DEL RIO SUNDAY MORNING AND THIS TURNS THE WINDS OUT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWEST THERE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SKIES ALSO CLEAR OUT QUICKLY
BEHIND THE DRYLINE WITH THE DRIER AIR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 68 85 62 80 / 10 10 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 68 84 63 80 / 10 10 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 85 64 85 / 0 10 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 66 88 58 79 / 20 20 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 69 95 61 94 / 10 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 67 85 60 78 / 10 10 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 67 88 61 91 / 10 10 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 67 84 63 82 / 10 10 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 69 83 67 81 / 0 20 10 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 68 85 65 86 / 10 10 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 68 86 65 88 / 0 10 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...PLATT
LONG-TERM...CJM
AVIATION...BRADY
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