612
FXUS64 KEWX 291950
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
250 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOW CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORM FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU DURING LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
- MAINLY DRY FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON; ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY SKIES PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING AFTER THE EROSION OF THIS MORNING'S LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY
FOG. AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS TO
THE MID 90S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. NO RAIN WILL BE EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION AT LEAST THROUGH SUNSET.
BEYOND SUNSET, THE DRYLINE WHICH SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU, WILL ATTEMPT TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS AS
SOME HELP FROM 750-500 MB MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. STORMS
WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS FROM THE FWD INTO THE SJT CWAS WHERE THE SPC
HIGHLIGHTS A LEVEL 1 TO 2 RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. WHILE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT, THE ARRIVING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD KEEP STORMS MORE ELEVATED INSTEAD OF SURFACE BASED. THE STORM
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EAST AND COULD ENTER WITHIN A PORTION
OF OUR HILL COUNTRY COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY TO MID SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE DECAYING AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING WITH CLOSER APPROACH TO
THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SPC HIGHLIGHTS A LEVEL 1 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY FOR THIS MORNING THREAT. MAIN
HAZARDS WITH ANY STORMS WOULD BE HAIL FOLLOWED BY GUSTY TO STRONG
WINDS. STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL NOT
BE EXPECTED. THE REGION WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY TONIGHT
WITH RETURNING LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS FAVORED TONIGHT AS THE CONDITIONS THIS MORNING OR
FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THE DRYLINE WILL MARCH EASTWARD INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL BE
ABLE TO MAKE IT THROUGH AT LEAST ABOUT THE WESTERN 1/3RD OF THE
REGION. A WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN FOR LOCATIONS TO THE
EAST OF THE DRYLINE WHILE A HOT AND DRY AIRMASS ARRIVES OVER OUR
WESTERN LOCATIONS FOLLOWING THE DRYLINE WITH A MODERATE WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER COULD DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU. THE CAPPING INVERSION WILL REMAIN STOUT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND EAST OF THE
DRYLINE LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WHERE FORCING
BECOMES STRONGER WITH CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT MOISTURE
ADVECTION SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS BELOW THE
CAPPING INVERSION.
THE DRYLINE RETREATS WESTWARD SLIGHTLY SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE THE
ARRIVAL OF A FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH INTO AND THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. FOG DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE FAVORABLE IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. THIS WILL DEVELOP FOR
LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT. THE
REGIONS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL TREND DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
ENTERING MONDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY, BUT
WILL BE DRY. THE FRONT WILL BRING SOME COOLER AIR TO THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TUESDAY BEGINNING A WARMING
TREND FOR THE MID-WEEK. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
90S OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE SOUTHWEST REACHING TRIPLE DIGITS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING 40%-50% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG LIFT WILL BE BEST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
MVFR CEILINGS IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS
MORNING CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT
SHOULD SEE MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS RETURN ACROSS THE REGION WITH
POSSIBLE BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS AT KSAT AROUND SUNRISE. THE CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT ENTERING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A LIGHT VARIABLE TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A DRYLINE. THE DRYLINE WILL ADVANCE ACROSS
DEL RIO SUNDAY MORNING AND THIS TURNS THE WINDS OUT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWEST THERE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SKIES ALSO CLEAR OUT QUICKLY
BEHIND THE DRYLINE WITH THE DRIER AIR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 68 85 62 80 / 10 10 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 68 84 63 80 / 10 10 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 85 64 85 / 0 10 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 66 88 58 79 / 20 20 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 69 95 61 94 / 10 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 67 85 60 78 / 10 10 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 67 88 61 91 / 10 10 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 67 84 63 82 / 10 10 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 69 83 67 81 / 0 20 10 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 68 85 65 86 / 10 10 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 68 86 65 88 / 0 10 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...BRADY
LONG-TERM...05
AVIATION...BRADY
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