621
FXUS64 KEWX 301148
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
648 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGE:
- LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM EARLY THIS MORNING
EDWARDS PLATEAU, HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR NEAR AND NORTH OF
AUSTIN.
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DUE TO A STOUT EML IS LIKELY KEEPING A LID ON
CONVECTION CHANCES EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS INTO FAR NORTHWEST TEXAS. WHILE HI-RES MODEL SOLUTIONS
VARY, WE WILL AT LEAST SHOW A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL
COUNTRY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IF CONVECTION MANAGES TO
DEVELOP, WE COULD SEE A CELL OR TWO MOVE AS FAR EAST AS THE I-35
CORRIDOR NEAR AND NORTH OF AUSTIN. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, WITH
HAIL THE MOST LIKELY THREAT, FOLLOWED BY LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.
FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND COASTAL
PLAINS REGION, WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER (POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER) DEVELOP THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON GIVEN PLENTY OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STOUT SOUTHERLY FLOW AS NOTED IN RECENT KEWX
VWP PRODUCT. OTHERWISE, EXPECT TO SEE A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER
(FROM WEST TO EAST) FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS THE DAYTIME HOURS
PROGRESS. IT MAY BE TOUGH TO GET MUCH CLEARING FOR AREAS ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR GIVEN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-
LEVELS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S TO MID 90S, WITH
THE WARMEST READINGS OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS WHERE SOME DRY AIR AND WEST WINDS BEHIND THE DRYLINE
WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES.
FOR THIS EVENING, THE DRYLINE BRIEFLY RETREATS WESTWARD ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. FARTHER EAST, PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING BY LATE EVENING INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. FOG AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WILL INITIATE
NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS, THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE I-35
CORRIDOR. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTH, WITH THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE HILL
COUNTRY INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR NEAR GEORGETOWN AROUND SUNRISE. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY, WITH THE COMBINATION OF
COOLER AIR AND CLOUDS HAVING THE MOST IMPACT ON DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY INTO THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR. FARTHER
SOUTHWEST INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS, ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. A FEW SPOTS OVER DIMMIT
COUNTY WILL BE CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- HUMID WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RESUMING TUESDAY.
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASING (40-50%) FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RESUMES IN EARNEST COME TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES RESPOND BY REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
AS THE JET SLIDES WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. EVENTUALLY THE JET PINCHES
OFF SENDING A TROUGH DOWN OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MOST GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE IDEA THAT A DEEP
WESTERN TROUGH WILL FORM AND THIS WILL LIKELY START THE PROCESS FOR OUR
NEXT WEATHER MAKER COME FRIDAY. LOOKING AT THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SEVERAL MODELS HAVE COME THROUGH SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK (WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY). ADDITIONALLY WHEN LOOKING AT
THE NBM 1D VIEWER AREAS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS HAVE A VERY GOOD
SHOT(40-50%) OF HITTING TRIPLE DIGITS FOR HIGHS BOTH DAYS. WITH BOTH
SAN ANTONIO (70-90%) AND AUSTIN (65-85%) HAVING HIGH ENOUGH CHANCES
TO HIT 90 DEGREES OR HIGHER AS WELL. GIVEN THAT A LOW LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE LOOKS TO DEVELOP BOTH DAYS COUPLED WITH THE FACT THAT THE NBM
HAS JUST BEEN TOO LOW THESE PAST COUPLE TIMES WHEN THIS SETUP UP
FORMS, DECIDED TO RAISE POPS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE
HEAT LOOKING TO PEAK WEDNESDAY WITH SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGHS
ALBEIT STILL IN THE 90S FOR MOST AREAS EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ALTHOUGH NOT REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS WILL BE THE FIRST
REAL TASTE OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WE HAVE HAD THIS SPRING. THE PREVIOUS
ONE OFF WE HAD EXTREMELY LOW HUMIDITIES SO ALTHOUGH IT WAS
WARM(UPPER 90S) IT WASN'T TOO BAD SINCE THE FEELS LIKE TEMPS WERE
FAR LOWER. THIS WONT BE THE CASE THIS UPCOMING WEEK WITH DEWPOINTS
EXPECTED IN THE 65-70 RANGE COUPLED WITH MID TO UPPER 90S, MOST AREAS
CAN EXPECT TO FEEL AROUND 100 DEGREES. ADDITIONALLY TEMPS DON'T COOL
ALL THAT MUCH WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOWS.
TEMPERATURES THEN COOL SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION.
AS THIS COLD FRONT APPROACHES EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
BLOSSOM AND IMPACT AREAS MAINLY ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY NORTHERN I-35
CORRIDOR AND EVENTUALLY THE COASTAL PLAINS. SEVERAL MODELS HAVE THIS
FRONT EVENTUALLY TRYING TO PUSH ITS WAY THROUGH OUR AREA BUT IT
LOOKS TO STALL SOMEWHERE EITHER OVER CENTRAL TX OR FURTHER SOUTH OVER
THE HILL COUNTRY THUS BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR A SECOND ROUND OF
STORMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS
FRONT STALLS SOME AREAS COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME DECENT BUT MUCH
NEEDED RAINFALL THAT MAY VERY WELL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
CLOUD BASES HAVE REMAINED HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AND WILL
USE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND KEEP CIGS MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE WITH VFR
EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG I-35. FOR DRT, LOW CLOUDS HAVE YET
TO FILL IN AND WILL OPT TO GO WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR THROUGH
15Z, THEN VFR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 86 64 81 56 / 20 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 85 65 81 53 / 20 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 85 66 85 56 / 20 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 89 60 80 53 / 20 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 96 62 96 64 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 87 62 79 52 / 20 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 88 62 91 58 / 10 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 85 65 83 54 / 20 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 83 68 82 58 / 20 10 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 86 67 88 59 / 20 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 86 66 90 60 / 20 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...PLATT
LONG-TERM...CJM
AVIATION...PLATT
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