027
FXUS64 KEWX 302324
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
624 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGE:
- PATCHY OR AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT IN THE COASTAL PLAINS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO POOL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A
DRY LINE AND COLD FRONT. SKIES ARE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME HAZE AND DRIZZLE SEEN IN THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT MAY REMAIN
NEAR HIGHWAY 77 AND EASTWARD WHERE MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES. SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED AND MOVED ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLIER THIS MORNING WITH ONLY LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAINING IN OUR FAR EAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE, THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.
THE DRYLINE RETREATS FURTHER WEST TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG EXPECTED FROM THE HILL COUNTRY EAST. THE HREF
INDICATES THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (50-70%) FOR DENSE FOG REMAIN IN
THE COASTAL PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH
TOMORROW MORNING AND CONTINUE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS TOMORROW
ARE A BIT TRICKY DUE TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S EAST WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST
IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES DUE TO DRIER AIR. THE FRONT STALLS
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME MORE LOW
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS NIGHT. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
MID 50S AND 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEEK.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TUESDAY BEGINNING A WARMING TREND FOR THE
MID-WEEK. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S OVER MOST
OF THE AREA WITH THE SOUTHWEST REACHING TRIPLE DIGITS. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES FOR
RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS
CENTRAL TX AND BECOME THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION OVER THE END OF THE
WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY AND PROVIDE LIFT THAT WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR CWA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY. DETAILS ON RAIN AMOUNTS AND STRENGTH OF STORMS
ARE FUZZY AT THIS TIME. BUT MODEL FORECAST FOR PW IS MODERATE AND
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON STORM TIMING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE
00Z TAF CYCLE. A RETREATING DRYLINE WILL ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO SURGE BACK NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE TERMINALS AHEAD OF A
SOUTHWARD DROPPING COLD FRONT. THIS RETURN OF MOISTURE ALSO MEANS THE
RETURN OF LOWERED CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HAVE KEPT THE INHERITED IFR CEILINGS FOR THE I-35 TERMINALS
HOWEVER SOME HI-RES MODELS DO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR LIFR FOR KSAT AND
KSSF FROM LOW STRATUS AND/OR DENSE FOG. HELD OFF ON TAKING TERMINALS
INTO LIFR GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE COVERAGE. WHILE THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD MAKE IT'S WAY UP THE RIO GRANDE, DON'T EXPECT KDRT TO DROP
BELOW VFR.
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY TO BRING A
RETURN TO VFR CEILINGS FOR THE I-35 TERMINALS AROUND 20Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 64 79 58 85 / 10 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 63 79 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 66 83 57 87 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 59 77 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 62 96 65 95 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 61 77 53 86 / 10 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 63 91 60 89 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 64 81 56 85 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 68 79 59 83 / 10 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 66 87 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 68 88 61 88 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...27
LONG-TERM...05
AVIATION...36
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