609
FXUS64 KEWX 310529
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1229 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGE:
- PATCHY OR AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT IN THE COASTAL PLAINS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO POOL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A
DRY LINE AND COLD FRONT. SKIES ARE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME HAZE AND DRIZZLE SEEN IN THE EAST. CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT MAY REMAIN
NEAR HIGHWAY 77 AND EASTWARD WHERE MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES. SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED AND MOVED ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLIER THIS MORNING WITH ONLY LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAINING IN OUR FAR EAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE, THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.
THE DRYLINE RETREATS FURTHER WEST TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG EXPECTED FROM THE HILL COUNTRY EAST. THE HREF
INDICATES THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (50-70%) FOR DENSE FOG REMAIN IN
THE COASTAL PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH
TOMORROW MORNING AND CONTINUE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS TOMORROW
ARE A BIT TRICKY DUE TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S EAST WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST
IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES DUE TO DRIER AIR. THE FRONT STALLS
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME MORE LOW
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS NIGHT. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
MID 50S AND 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEEK.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TUESDAY BEGINNING A WARMING TREND FOR THE
MID-WEEK. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S OVER MOST
OF THE AREA WITH THE SOUTHWEST REACHING TRIPLE DIGITS. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES FOR
RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS
CENTRAL TX AND BECOME THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION OVER THE END OF THE
WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY AND PROVIDE LIFT THAT WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR CWA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY. DETAILS ON RAIN AMOUNTS AND STRENGTH OF STORMS
ARE FUZZY AT THIS TIME. BUT MODEL FORECAST FOR PW IS MODERATE AND
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON STORM TIMING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
FOR THE I-35 SITES, CIGS/VSBYS WILL LOWER TO IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT, THEN
GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR IN THE MORNING AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS WITH
LIGHT N WINDS, THEN MIX TO SCT VFR MIDDAY INTO AFTERNOON WITH N TO
NE WINDS OF 7 TO 12 KTS. MVFR CIGS RETURN MONDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ON TOP OF THE LIGHT NE SURFACE WINDS.
FOR KDRT, SCT MVFR CLOUDS DEVELOP ON LIGHT E WINDS. A DRYLINE MOVES
ACROSS WITH MAINLY SKC ON NW WINDS OF 7 TO 13 KTS DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. VFR SKIES CONTINUE, ALTHOUGH WINDS TURN LIGHT E AGAIN MONDAY
EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 58 85 70 91 / 0 0 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 55 86 69 91 / 0 0 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 57 87 69 93 / 0 0 0 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 55 85 69 89 / 0 0 20 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 65 95 68 97 / 0 0 10 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 53 86 69 89 / 0 0 20 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 60 89 67 94 / 0 0 10 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 56 85 68 91 / 0 0 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 59 83 70 88 / 0 0 0 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 60 87 70 92 / 0 0 10 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 61 88 71 94 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...04
LONG-TERM...CJM
AVIATION...04
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